Pokespective

Octillery

XY - BREAKthrough · Holo Rare · Reverse Holofoil

Forecast: behind · 35%Reverse HolofoilVintage
Price
$5.83
Interest score
40/100 — Ordinary
Pricing
Rarely trades

Pricier than 88% of the cards we track in this set · near the top of its 12-month range ($4.57–$6.29)

Octillery — price history
$3.00$3.10$3.20$3.30$3.40$3.50$3.60$3.70$3.80$3.90$4.00$4.10 2024-022024-072024-122025-052025-112026-042026-09

Why it scores where it does

What's driving the score
Seller confidence: -0.099Seller confidence-0.0992-month trend: -0.0582-month trend-0.058Price steadiness: +0.026Price steadiness+0.0264-month trend: -0.0254-month trend-0.025Near its high: -0.024Near its high-0.0241-month trend: -0.0161-month trend-0.016Listing tightness: -0.016Listing tightness-0.016Unusual move: -0.010Unusual move-0.010

Its interest score of 40 out of 100 is driven most by seller confidence — sellers undercutting. Blue bars pushed the score up, red bars pulled it down. The ingredients are weighted by how well each one has actually predicted price moves in this market, measured on your own price history rather than assumed.

What the numbers say

Is this card interesting right now?

Ordinary - 40 out of 100

It ranks above 41% of the cards we track. The score describes the conditions around the card today - how sellers are pricing it, how it is trending, how steadily it trades. It is not a prediction, and it says nothing about whether you will enjoy owning the card.

Why is it interesting?

Sellers undercutting and sliding for 2 months

People selling are asking less than the card recently sold for - holders are competing to get out. It has trailed the market over the past two months.

Is it becoming more popular?

Mixed

Compared with the Pokemon market as a whole, so a rising tide does not count as popularity. In this market these trends have tended to keep going rather than reverse.

Past month+0.1%
Past 2 months-4.2%
Past 4 months-14.7%

Is it expensive or cheap?

$5.83 - expensive for its set

At $5.83 it is expensive for its set - number 36 of 302 by price. Against other Holo Rare cards it sits at the 46th percentile. It is 8% below its 12-month high. Worth knowing: in this market cards near their highs have gone on to do better than deeply discounted ones, so a big discount is not automatically a bargain.

What makes this card unusual?

An ordinary Holo Rare from a 11-year-old set

Holo Rare is a common tier - 3,435 tracked cards share it. This is the Reverse Holofoil printing, which is priced as a completely separate market from the other printings of the same artwork. The set is about 11 years old, so surviving copies in good condition get scarcer over time.

Could you actually buy or sell it?

Slowly - it rarely trades

The price changed in 17% of our checks over the past year across 365 observations. TCGplayer's market price only updates when a copy sells, so a low figure means the price shown may be stale and any trend reading is built on very few real sales.

Is grading worth considering?

No

At $5.83 raw, grading costs roughly $22.00 - more than the card itself. Only worth it for sentimental reasons. This is a vintage set, where condition varies far more between copies and grading matters correspondingly more. This is a rule of thumb from the card's raw price, age and price stability. We track raw ungraded prices only - no graded sales and no population data - so this cannot tell you what a PSA 10 of this card is worth. Check a graded price guide before spending money.

What happens next (60 days)

Expected to lag the market

An estimated 35% chance of beating the typical tracked card over the next 60 days, by around +0.0% on a middling outcome.

Chance of beating market
35%
50% would be average
Expected vs market
+0.0%
the part actually predicted
Forecast confidence
72
higher = tighter, better-grounded

$5.31 – $7.37 — 80% likely. The middle half lands between $5.68 and $6.59. Today it is $5.83.

Assumes the market as a whole drifts +4.0% over 60 days, its recent average. That part is an assumption carried forward, not a prediction — the 'vs market' figure above does not depend on it.

Prices here are TCGplayer's market price, which is an average of recent sales and lags a real move by a few weeks. Part of any short-term forecast is that lag catching up — visible in the chart, but not something you can buy at.

Every number behind this page

Market price$5.83What copies have recently sold for
Cheapest listing$3.25The lowest price anyone is currently asking
Middle of listings$5.97The midpoint of what sellers are asking
Seller confidence+2.4%Asking prices are above recent sales — sellers are in no hurry
1-month trend vs market+0.1%Outpacing the market
2-month trend vs market-4.2%Falling behind the market
4-month trend vs market-14.7%Falling behind the market
Versus same-set, same-rarity cards-14.1%Shown for interest only — this one is not part of the score
Unusual move+0.2Within its normal range of movement
Below its 12-month high-7.3%Well off its high
Day-to-day price movement0.0140Calm and steady
How often it trades17%Rarely trades — the price shown may be stale
Price checks on record365Observations in the past year
Times the price changed61How many of those were real moves
Actively tradedYesWhether there is enough activity for the trend figures to mean anything
Set age10.9 yearsVintage
Interest score41 / 100Ranks above 41% of tracked cards
TCGplayer product ID107,152For looking it up elsewhere

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