Pokespective

Machamp BREAK

XY - Evolutions · Rare BREAK · Holofoil

Forecast: in line · 54%HolofoilVintage
Price
$3.72
Interest score
59/100 — Above average
Pricing
Reliable pricing

Pricier than 74% of the cards we track in this set · in the middle of its 12-month range ($2.52–$4.31)

Machamp BREAK — price history
$1.10$1.20$1.30$1.40$1.50$1.60$1.70$1.80$1.90$2.00$2.10$2.20 2024-022024-072024-122025-052025-112026-042026-09

Why it scores where it does

What's driving the score
Seller confidence: -0.169Seller confidence-0.1691-month trend: +0.1451-month trend+0.1452-month trend: +0.1412-month trend+0.141Price steadiness: -0.090Price steadiness-0.090Unusual move: +0.087Unusual move+0.087Near its high: -0.040Near its high-0.040Listing tightness: -0.033Listing tightness-0.0334-month trend: -0.0104-month trend-0.010

Its interest score of 59 out of 100 is driven most by seller confidence — sellers undercutting. Blue bars pushed the score up, red bars pulled it down. The ingredients are weighted by how well each one has actually predicted price moves in this market, measured on your own price history rather than assumed.

What the numbers say

Is this card interesting right now?

Above average - 59 out of 100

It ranks above 59% of the cards we track. The score describes the conditions around the card today - how sellers are pricing it, how it is trending, how steadily it trades. It is not a prediction, and it says nothing about whether you will enjoy owning the card.

Why is it interesting?

Sellers undercutting and climbing this month

People selling are asking less than the card recently sold for - holders are competing to get out. It has outpaced the rest of the market over the past month.

Is it becoming more popular?

Mostly yes

Compared with the Pokemon market as a whole, so a rising tide does not count as popularity. In this market these trends have tended to keep going rather than reverse.

Past month+8.0%
Past 2 months+15.5%
Past 4 months-6.9%

Is it expensive or cheap?

$3.72 - expensive for its set

At $3.72 it is expensive for its set - number 52 of 196 by price. Against other Rare BREAK cards it sits at the 34th percentile. It is 16% below its 12-month high. Worth knowing: in this market cards near their highs have gone on to do better than deeply discounted ones, so a big discount is not automatically a bargain.

What makes this card unusual?

Rare BREAK - genuinely scarce

Only 28 of the cards we track are Rare BREAK - under 0.1% of the catalogue. This is the Holofoil printing, which is priced as a completely separate market from the other printings of the same artwork. The set is about 10 years old, so surviving copies in good condition get scarcer over time.

Could you actually buy or sell it?

Easily - it trades often

The price changed in 82% of our checks over the past year across 365 observations. TCGplayer's market price only updates when a copy sells, so a low figure means the price shown may be stale and any trend reading is built on very few real sales.

Is grading worth considering?

No

At $3.72 raw, grading costs roughly $22.00 - more than the card itself. Only worth it for sentimental reasons. This is a vintage set, where condition varies far more between copies and grading matters correspondingly more. This is a rule of thumb from the card's raw price, age and price stability. We track raw ungraded prices only - no graded sales and no population data - so this cannot tell you what a PSA 10 of this card is worth. Check a graded price guide before spending money.

What happens next (60 days)

Roughly in line with the market

An estimated 54% chance of beating the typical tracked card over the next 60 days, by around +1.9% on a middling outcome.

Chance of beating market
54%
50% would be average
Expected vs market
+1.9%
the part actually predicted
Forecast confidence
59
higher = tighter, better-grounded

$3.17 – $5.01 — 80% likely. The middle half lands between $3.59 and $4.38. Today it is $3.72.

Assumes the market as a whole drifts +4.0% over 60 days, its recent average. That part is an assumption carried forward, not a prediction — the 'vs market' figure above does not depend on it.

Prices here are TCGplayer's market price, which is an average of recent sales and lags a real move by a few weeks. Part of any short-term forecast is that lag catching up — visible in the chart, but not something you can buy at.

Every number behind this page

Market price$3.72What copies have recently sold for
Cheapest listing$1.79The lowest price anyone is currently asking
Middle of listings$3.72The midpoint of what sellers are asking
Seller confidence+0.0%Asking prices are below recent sales — sellers want out
1-month trend vs market+8.0%Outpacing the market
2-month trend vs market+15.5%Outpacing the market
4-month trend vs market-6.9%Falling behind the market
Unusual move+0.6Within its normal range of movement
Below its 12-month high-13.7%Well off its high
Day-to-day price movement0.0260Jumpy
How often it trades82%Trades readily
Price checks on record365Observations in the past year
Times the price changed299How many of those were real moves
Actively tradedYesWhether there is enough activity for the trend figures to mean anything
Set age9.9 yearsVintage
Interest score59 / 100Ranks above 59% of tracked cards
TCGplayer product ID124,073For looking it up elsewhere

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