Pokespective

Poliwrath - 25/108 (XY Evolutions)

Deck Exclusives · Rare

Forecast: slight edge · 58%NormalVintage
Price
$3.29
Interest score
62/100 — Above average
Pricing
Rarely trades

Pricier than 68% of the cards we track in this set · in the middle of its 12-month range ($2.90–$3.70)

Poliwrath - 25/108 (XY Evolutions) — price history
$2.70$2.80$2.90$3.00$3.10$3.20$3.30$3.40$3.50$3.60$3.70$3.80 2024-022024-072024-122025-052025-112026-042026-09

Why it scores where it does

What's driving the score
Seller confidence: -0.081Seller confidence-0.081Unusual move: +0.068Unusual move+0.0681-month trend: +0.0521-month trend+0.0522-month trend: +0.0482-month trend+0.048Near its high: -0.034Near its high-0.034Price steadiness: +0.026Price steadiness+0.026Listing tightness: +0.013Listing tightness+0.0134-month trend: -0.0114-month trend-0.011

Its interest score of 62 out of 100 is driven most by seller confidence — sellers undercutting. Blue bars pushed the score up, red bars pulled it down. The ingredients are weighted by how well each one has actually predicted price moves in this market, measured on your own price history rather than assumed.

What the numbers say

Is this card interesting right now?

Above average - 62 out of 100

It ranks above 63% of the cards we track. The score describes the conditions around the card today - how sellers are pricing it, how it is trending, how steadily it trades. It is not a prediction, and it says nothing about whether you will enjoy owning the card.

Why is it interesting?

Sellers undercutting and sudden jump

People selling are asking less than the card recently sold for - holders are competing to get out. The recent move is far larger than this card's normal week-to-week wobble - something happened.

Is it becoming more popular?

Mostly yes

Compared with the Pokemon market as a whole, so a rising tide does not count as popularity. In this market these trends have tended to keep going rather than reverse.

Past month+2.8%
Past 2 months+4.2%
Past 4 months-8.0%

Is it expensive or cheap?

$3.29 - mid-priced for its set

At $3.29 it is mid-priced for its set - number 166 of 516 by price. Against other Rare cards it sits at the 64th percentile. It is 12% below its 12-month high. Worth knowing: in this market cards near their highs have gone on to do better than deeply discounted ones, so a big discount is not automatically a bargain.

What makes this card unusual?

An ordinary Rare from a 10-year-old set

Rare is a common tier - 6,033 tracked cards share it. The set is about 10 years old, so surviving copies in good condition get scarcer over time.

Could you actually buy or sell it?

Slowly - it rarely trades

The price changed in 23% of our checks over the past year across 365 observations. TCGplayer's market price only updates when a copy sells, so a low figure means the price shown may be stale and any trend reading is built on very few real sales.

Is grading worth considering?

No

At $3.29 raw, grading costs roughly $22.00 - more than the card itself. Only worth it for sentimental reasons. This is a vintage set, where condition varies far more between copies and grading matters correspondingly more. This is a rule of thumb from the card's raw price, age and price stability. We track raw ungraded prices only - no graded sales and no population data - so this cannot tell you what a PSA 10 of this card is worth. Check a graded price guide before spending money.

What happens next (60 days)

Slightly ahead of the market

An estimated 58% chance of beating the typical tracked card over the next 60 days, by around +2.9% on a middling outcome.

Chance of beating market
58%
50% would be average
Expected vs market
+2.9%
the part actually predicted
Forecast confidence
77
higher = tighter, better-grounded

$3.09 – $4.28 — 80% likely. The middle half lands between $3.30 and $3.82. Today it is $3.29.

Assumes the market as a whole drifts +4.0% over 60 days, its recent average. That part is an assumption carried forward, not a prediction — the 'vs market' figure above does not depend on it.

Prices here are TCGplayer's market price, which is an average of recent sales and lags a real move by a few weeks. Part of any short-term forecast is that lag catching up — visible in the chart, but not something you can buy at.

Every number behind this page

Market price$3.29What copies have recently sold for
Cheapest listing$2.19The lowest price anyone is currently asking
Middle of listings$3.40The midpoint of what sellers are asking
Seller confidence+3.3%Asking prices are above recent sales — sellers are in no hurry
1-month trend vs market+2.8%Outpacing the market
2-month trend vs market+4.2%Outpacing the market
4-month trend vs market-8.0%Falling behind the market
Versus same-set, same-rarity cards-15.0%Shown for interest only — this one is not part of the score
Unusual move+0.5Within its normal range of movement
Below its 12-month high-11.1%Well off its high
Day-to-day price movement0.0140Calm and steady
How often it trades23%Rarely trades — the price shown may be stale
Price checks on record365Observations in the past year
Times the price changed85How many of those were real moves
Actively tradedYesWhether there is enough activity for the trend figures to mean anything
Set age10.1 yearsVintage
Interest score63 / 100Ranks above 63% of tracked cards
TCGplayer product ID141,261For looking it up elsewhere

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