Pokespective

Alolan Raichu (#30 Holofoil)

SM Trainer Kit: Lycanroc & Alolan Raichu · Uncommon · Holofoil

Forecast: slightly behind · 42%HolofoilVintage
Price
$3.24
Interest score
3/100 — Quiet
Pricing
Reliable pricing

Pricier than 100% of the cards we track in this set · near the top of its 12-month range ($1.09–$3.56)

Alolan Raichu (#30 Holofoil) — price history
$0.60$0.70$0.80$0.90$1.00$1.10$1.20$1.30$1.40$1.50$1.60$1.70 2024-022024-072024-122025-052025-112026-042026-09

Why it scores where it does

What's driving the score
Seller confidence: -0.250Seller confidence-0.2501-month trend: -0.2091-month trend-0.209Unusual move: -0.184Unusual move-0.1842-month trend: -0.1342-month trend-0.134Listing tightness: -0.073Listing tightness-0.073Price steadiness: -0.052Price steadiness-0.052Near its high: -0.028Near its high-0.0284-month trend: -0.0104-month trend-0.010

Its interest score of 3 out of 100 is driven most by seller confidence — sellers undercutting. Blue bars pushed the score up, red bars pulled it down. The ingredients are weighted by how well each one has actually predicted price moves in this market, measured on your own price history rather than assumed.

What the numbers say

Is this card interesting right now?

Quiet - 3 out of 100

It ranks above 4% of the cards we track. The score describes the conditions around the card today - how sellers are pricing it, how it is trending, how steadily it trades. It is not a prediction, and it says nothing about whether you will enjoy owning the card.

Why is it interesting?

Sellers undercutting and slipping this month

People selling are asking less than the card recently sold for - holders are competing to get out. It has fallen behind the rest of the market over the past month.

Is it becoming more popular?

No - losing ground

Compared with the Pokemon market as a whole, so a rising tide does not count as popularity. In this market these trends have tended to keep going rather than reverse.

Past month-9.4%
Past 2 months-10.2%
Past 4 months-7.2%

Is it expensive or cheap?

$3.24 - expensive for its set

At $3.24 it is one of the priciest cards in its set - number 1 of 60 by price. Against other Uncommon cards it sits at the 80th percentile - toward the top. It is 10% below its 12-month high. Worth knowing: in this market cards near their highs have gone on to do better than deeply discounted ones, so a big discount is not automatically a bargain.

What makes this card unusual?

The most valuable card in its set

Uncommon is a common tier - 11,470 tracked cards share it. It is the single most expensive card of the 60 we track in this set. This is the Holofoil printing, which is priced as a completely separate market from the other printings of the same artwork. The set is about 9 years old, so surviving copies in good condition get scarcer over time.

Could you actually buy or sell it?

Yes, with patience

The price changed in 38% of our checks over the past year across 365 observations. TCGplayer's market price only updates when a copy sells, so a low figure means the price shown may be stale and any trend reading is built on very few real sales.

Is grading worth considering?

No

At $3.24 raw, grading costs roughly $22.00 - more than the card itself. Only worth it for sentimental reasons. This is a vintage set, where condition varies far more between copies and grading matters correspondingly more. This is a rule of thumb from the card's raw price, age and price stability. We track raw ungraded prices only - no graded sales and no population data - so this cannot tell you what a PSA 10 of this card is worth. Check a graded price guide before spending money.

What happens next (60 days)

Slightly behind the market

An estimated 42% chance of beating the typical tracked card over the next 60 days, by around +0.4% on a middling outcome.

Chance of beating market
42%
50% would be average
Expected vs market
+0.4%
the part actually predicted
Forecast confidence
65
higher = tighter, better-grounded

$2.87 – $4.21 — 80% likely. The middle half lands between $3.12 and $3.72. Today it is $3.24.

Assumes the market as a whole drifts +4.0% over 60 days, its recent average. That part is an assumption carried forward, not a prediction — the 'vs market' figure above does not depend on it.

Prices here are TCGplayer's market price, which is an average of recent sales and lags a real move by a few weeks. Part of any short-term forecast is that lag catching up — visible in the chart, but not something you can buy at.

Every number behind this page

Market price$3.24What copies have recently sold for
Cheapest listing$1.00The lowest price anyone is currently asking
Middle of listings$3.13The midpoint of what sellers are asking
Seller confidence-3.4%Asking prices are below recent sales — sellers want out
1-month trend vs market-9.4%Falling behind the market
2-month trend vs market-10.2%Falling behind the market
4-month trend vs market-7.2%Falling behind the market
Unusual move-0.7Within its normal range of movement
Below its 12-month high-9.0%Well off its high
Day-to-day price movement0.0214Jumpy
How often it trades38%Trades occasionally
Price checks on record365Observations in the past year
Times the price changed138How many of those were real moves
Actively tradedYesWhether there is enough activity for the trend figures to mean anything
Set age9.4 yearsVintage
Interest score4 / 100Ranks above 4% of tracked cards
TCGplayer product ID152,873For looking it up elsewhere

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