Pokespective

Incineroar - 26/149 (Water Web Holo)

Miscellaneous Cards & Products · Holo Rare · Holofoil

Forecast: ahead · 72%HolofoilJust released
Price
$13.97
Interest score
80/100 — Not trustworthy
Pricing
Very few listings

Pricier than 64% of the cards we track in this set · at the top of its 12-month range ($9.29–$13.97)

Incineroar - 26/149 (Water Web Holo) — price history
$10.00$12.00$14.00 2024-022024-072024-122025-052025-112026-042026-09

Why it scores where it does

What's driving the score
Seller confidence: +0.447Seller confidence+0.4472-month trend: +0.0922-month trend+0.092Listing tightness: -0.088Listing tightness-0.088Price steadiness: -0.079Price steadiness-0.079Near its high: +0.042Near its high+0.042Unusual move: -0.035Unusual move-0.0351-month trend: -0.0231-month trend-0.0234-month trend: +0.0234-month trend+0.023

Its interest score of 80 out of 100 is driven most by seller confidence — sellers holding firm. Blue bars pushed the score up, red bars pulled it down. The ingredients are weighted by how well each one has actually predicted price moves in this market, measured on your own price history rather than assumed.

What the numbers say

Is this card interesting right now?

Scores 80, but do not trust it

Asking prices are 3.9x what the card last sold for. At that extreme this is one or two outlier listings on a nearly empty page, not sellers holding firm - and seller confidence is the heaviest ingredient in the score. Check the real listings before believing this ranking. The score is computed the same way as for every other card, and on this one the ingredients are being fed by a listing that does not represent a real market. Treat the ranking as unreliable until the listings look normal again.

Why is it interesting?

Sellers holding firm and climbing for 2 months

People selling this card are asking more than it has recently sold for. In this market that has been the single most reliable sign that supply is tight. It has outpaced the market over two months, which is long enough to be a trend rather than a blip. Working against it: asking prices are scattered, so the quoted price is not really the price.

Is it becoming more popular?

Mostly yes

Compared with the Pokemon market as a whole, so a rising tide does not count as popularity. In this market these trends have tended to keep going rather than reverse.

Past month-0.1%
Past 2 months+8.7%
Past 4 months+20.4%

Is it expensive or cheap?

$13.97 - mid-priced for its set

At $13.97 it is mid-priced for its set - number 223 of 619 by price. Against other Holo Rare cards it sits at the 56th percentile. It is at or near its highest price of the past year.

What makes this card unusual?

An ordinary Holo Rare from a recent set

Holo Rare is a common tier - 3,435 tracked cards share it. This is the Holofoil printing, which is priced as a completely separate market from the other printings of the same artwork. The set is brand new - prices this early are driven by hype and packs still being opened, and usually settle downward.

Could you actually buy or sell it?

Slowly - it rarely trades

The price changed in 8% of our checks over the past year across 365 observations. TCGplayer's market price only updates when a copy sells, so a low figure means the price shown may be stale and any trend reading is built on very few real sales.

Is grading worth considering?

No

At $13.97 raw, grading costs roughly $22.00 - more than the card itself. Only worth it for sentimental reasons. This is a rule of thumb from the card's raw price, age and price stability. We track raw ungraded prices only - no graded sales and no population data - so this cannot tell you what a PSA 10 of this card is worth. Check a graded price guide before spending money.

What happens next (60 days)

Expected to outpace the market

An estimated 72% chance of beating the typical tracked card over the next 60 days, by around +9.2% on a middling outcome.

Very few listings: treat this forecast as unusable. The model's heaviest input is seller confidence, and that is the exact figure this card's listings distort.

Chance of beating market
72%
not meaningful here
Expected vs market
+9.2%
not meaningful here
Forecast confidence
42
thin data — treat loosely

$12.82 – $20.04 — 80% likely. The middle half lands between $14.46 and $17.58. Today it is $13.97.

Assumes the market as a whole drifts +4.0% over 60 days, its recent average. That part is an assumption carried forward, not a prediction — the 'vs market' figure above does not depend on it.

Prices here are TCGplayer's market price, which is an average of recent sales and lags a real move by a few weeks. Part of any short-term forecast is that lag catching up — visible in the chart, but not something you can buy at.

Every number behind this page

Market price$13.97What copies have recently sold for
Cheapest listing$13.77The lowest price anyone is currently asking
Middle of listings$54.58The midpoint of what sellers are asking
Seller confidence+290.7%Asking prices are above recent sales — sellers are in no hurry
1-month trend vs market-0.1%Falling behind the market
2-month trend vs market+8.7%Outpacing the market
4-month trend vs market+20.4%Outpacing the market
Versus same-set, same-rarity cards+6.5%Shown for interest only — this one is not part of the score
Unusual move+0.1Within its normal range of movement
Below its 12-month high-0.0%At or near its high
Day-to-day price movement0.0247Jumpy
How often it trades8%Rarely trades — the price shown may be stale
Price checks on record365Observations in the past year
Times the price changed30How many of those were real moves
Actively tradedYesWhether there is enough activity for the trend figures to mean anything
Set age0.0 yearsJust released
Interest score81 / 100Ranks above 81% of tracked cards
TCGplayer product ID244,309For looking it up elsewhere

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