Pokespective

Frosmoth

SWSH10: Astral Radiance Trainer Gallery · Ultra Rare · Holofoil

Forecast: slight edge · 58%HolofoilSettled and climbing
Price
$4.07
Interest score
40/100 — Ordinary
Pricing
Reliable pricing

Pricier than 30% of the cards we track in this set · in the middle of its 12-month range ($2.03–$5.09)

Frosmoth — price history
$1.00$2.00$3.00$4.00$5.00 2024-022024-072024-122025-052025-112026-042026-09

Why it scores where it does

What's driving the score
2-month trend: -0.1602-month trend-0.160Price steadiness: -0.094Price steadiness-0.094Near its high: -0.052Near its high-0.0521-month trend: +0.0461-month trend+0.046Seller confidence: +0.044Seller confidence+0.0444-month trend: -0.0274-month trend-0.027Listing tightness: +0.019Listing tightness+0.019Unusual move: +0.007Unusual move+0.007

Its interest score of 40 out of 100 is driven most by 2-month trend — sliding for 2 months. Blue bars pushed the score up, red bars pulled it down. The ingredients are weighted by how well each one has actually predicted price moves in this market, measured on your own price history rather than assumed.

What the numbers say

Is this card interesting right now?

Ordinary - 40 out of 100

It ranks above 41% of the cards we track. The score describes the conditions around the card today - how sellers are pricing it, how it is trending, how steadily it trades. It is not a prediction, and it says nothing about whether you will enjoy owning the card.

Why is it interesting?

Sliding for 2 months and jumpy price

It has trailed the market over the past two months. The price lurches around, so what you pay depends heavily on timing.

Is it becoming more popular?

Mixed

Compared with the Pokemon market as a whole, so a rising tide does not count as popularity. In this market these trends have tended to keep going rather than reverse.

Past month+2.5%
Past 2 months-13.0%
Past 4 months-15.9%

Is it expensive or cheap?

$4.07 - cheap for its set

At $4.07 it is one of the cheaper cards in its set - number 22 of 30 by price. Against other Ultra Rare cards it sits at the 37th percentile. It is 25% below its 12-month high. Worth knowing: in this market cards near their highs have gone on to do better than deeply discounted ones, so a big discount is not automatically a bargain.

What makes this card unusual?

An ordinary Ultra Rare from a 4-year-old set

Ultra Rare is a common tier - 2,592 tracked cards share it. This is the Holofoil printing, which is priced as a completely separate market from the other printings of the same artwork.

Could you actually buy or sell it?

Easily - it trades often

The price changed in 93% of our checks over the past year across 365 observations. TCGplayer's market price only updates when a copy sells, so a low figure means the price shown may be stale and any trend reading is built on very few real sales.

Is grading worth considering?

No

At $4.07 raw, grading costs roughly $22.00 - more than the card itself. Only worth it for sentimental reasons. This is a rule of thumb from the card's raw price, age and price stability. We track raw ungraded prices only - no graded sales and no population data - so this cannot tell you what a PSA 10 of this card is worth. Check a graded price guide before spending money.

What happens next (60 days)

Slightly ahead of the market

An estimated 58% chance of beating the typical tracked card over the next 60 days, by around +4.3% on a middling outcome.

Chance of beating market
58%
50% would be average
Expected vs market
+4.3%
the part actually predicted
Forecast confidence
59
higher = tighter, better-grounded

$3.54 – $5.62 — 80% likely. The middle half lands between $4.01 and $4.91. Today it is $4.07.

Assumes the market as a whole drifts +4.0% over 60 days, its recent average. That part is an assumption carried forward, not a prediction — the 'vs market' figure above does not depend on it.

Prices here are TCGplayer's market price, which is an average of recent sales and lags a real move by a few weeks. Part of any short-term forecast is that lag catching up — visible in the chart, but not something you can buy at.

Every number behind this page

Market price$4.07What copies have recently sold for
Cheapest listing$3.00The lowest price anyone is currently asking
Middle of listings$4.51The midpoint of what sellers are asking
Seller confidence+10.8%Asking prices are above recent sales — sellers are in no hurry
1-month trend vs market+2.5%Outpacing the market
2-month trend vs market-13.0%Falling behind the market
4-month trend vs market-15.9%Falling behind the market
Versus same-set, same-rarity cards-4.6%Shown for interest only — this one is not part of the score
Unusual move+0.3Within its normal range of movement
Below its 12-month high-20.0%Well off its high
Day-to-day price movement0.0268Jumpy
How often it trades93%Trades readily
Price checks on record365Observations in the past year
Times the price changed340How many of those were real moves
Actively tradedYesWhether there is enough activity for the trend figures to mean anything
Set age4.3 yearsSettled and climbing
Interest score41 / 100Ranks above 41% of tracked cards
TCGplayer product ID272,475For looking it up elsewhere

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