Pokespective

Castform

SWSH11: Lost Origin Trainer Gallery · Ultra Rare · Holofoil

Forecast: slight edge · 59%HolofoilSettled and climbing
Price
$2.13
Interest score
8/100 — Quiet
Pricing
Reliable pricing

Pricier than 10% of the cards we track in this set · in the middle of its 12-month range ($1.10–$2.73)

Castform — price history
$0.10$0.20$0.30$0.40$0.50$0.60$0.70$0.80$0.90$1.00$1.10$1.20 2024-022024-072024-122025-052025-112026-042026-09

Why it scores where it does

What's driving the score
1-month trend: -0.2971-month trend-0.297Unusual move: -0.188Unusual move-0.188Price steadiness: -0.162Price steadiness-0.162Seller confidence: +0.152Seller confidence+0.1522-month trend: -0.1202-month trend-0.120Listing tightness: -0.058Listing tightness-0.058Near its high: -0.055Near its high-0.0554-month trend: -0.0194-month trend-0.019

Its interest score of 8 out of 100 is driven most by 1-month trend — slipping this month. Blue bars pushed the score up, red bars pulled it down. The ingredients are weighted by how well each one has actually predicted price moves in this market, measured on your own price history rather than assumed.

What the numbers say

Is this card interesting right now?

Quiet - 8 out of 100

It ranks above 9% of the cards we track. The score describes the conditions around the card today - how sellers are pricing it, how it is trending, how steadily it trades. It is not a prediction, and it says nothing about whether you will enjoy owning the card.

Why is it interesting?

Slipping this month and sudden drop

It has fallen behind the rest of the market over the past month. The recent drop is far larger than this card's normal movement.

Is it becoming more popular?

No - losing ground

Compared with the Pokemon market as a whole, so a rising tide does not count as popularity. In this market these trends have tended to keep going rather than reverse.

Past month-17.2%
Past 2 months-8.9%
Past 4 months-11.8%

Is it expensive or cheap?

$2.13 - cheap for its set

At $2.13 it is one of the cheaper cards in its set - number 28 of 30 by price. Against other Ultra Rare cards it sits at the 22th percentile - toward the bottom. It is 28% below its 12-month high. Worth knowing: in this market cards near their highs have gone on to do better than deeply discounted ones, so a big discount is not automatically a bargain.

What makes this card unusual?

An ordinary Ultra Rare from a 4-year-old set

Ultra Rare is a common tier - 2,592 tracked cards share it. This is the Holofoil printing, which is priced as a completely separate market from the other printings of the same artwork.

Could you actually buy or sell it?

Easily - it trades often

The price changed in 93% of our checks over the past year across 365 observations. TCGplayer's market price only updates when a copy sells, so a low figure means the price shown may be stale and any trend reading is built on very few real sales.

Is grading worth considering?

No

At $2.13 raw, grading costs roughly $22.00 - more than the card itself. Only worth it for sentimental reasons. This is a rule of thumb from the card's raw price, age and price stability. We track raw ungraded prices only - no graded sales and no population data - so this cannot tell you what a PSA 10 of this card is worth. Check a graded price guide before spending money.

What happens next (60 days)

Slightly ahead of the market

An estimated 59% chance of beating the typical tracked card over the next 60 days, by around +7.2% on a middling outcome.

Chance of beating market
59%
50% would be average
Expected vs market
+7.2%
the part actually predicted
Forecast confidence
52
higher = tighter, better-grounded

$1.82 – $3.18 — 80% likely. The middle half lands between $2.11 and $2.70. Today it is $2.13.

Assumes the market as a whole drifts +4.0% over 60 days, its recent average. That part is an assumption carried forward, not a prediction — the 'vs market' figure above does not depend on it.

Prices here are TCGplayer's market price, which is an average of recent sales and lags a real move by a few weeks. Part of any short-term forecast is that lag catching up — visible in the chart, but not something you can buy at.

Every number behind this page

Market price$2.13What copies have recently sold for
Cheapest listing$1.00The lowest price anyone is currently asking
Middle of listings$2.63The midpoint of what sellers are asking
Seller confidence+23.5%Asking prices are above recent sales — sellers are in no hurry
1-month trend vs market-17.2%Falling behind the market
2-month trend vs market-8.9%Falling behind the market
4-month trend vs market-11.8%Falling behind the market
Versus same-set, same-rarity cards-5.5%Shown for interest only — this one is not part of the score
Unusual move-0.8Within its normal range of movement
Below its 12-month high-22.0%Well off its high
Day-to-day price movement0.0422Jumpy
How often it trades93%Trades readily
Price checks on record365Observations in the past year
Times the price changed340How many of those were real moves
Actively tradedYesWhether there is enough activity for the trend figures to mean anything
Set age4.0 yearsSettled and climbing
Interest score9 / 100Ranks above 9% of tracked cards
TCGplayer product ID284,271For looking it up elsewhere

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