Pokespective

Poliwrath

Base Set 2 · Holo Rare · Holofoil

Forecast: slight edge · 60%HolofoilVintage
Price
$20.14
Interest score
58/100 — Above average
Pricing
Reliable pricing

Pricier than 85% of the cards we track in this set · at the top of its 12-month range ($11.92–$20.50)

Poliwrath — price history
$5.00$10.00$15.00$20.00 2024-022024-072024-122025-052025-112026-042026-09

Why it scores where it does

What's driving the score
Seller confidence: -0.389Seller confidence-0.389Unusual move: +0.182Unusual move+0.1821-month trend: +0.1271-month trend+0.127Price steadiness: +0.069Price steadiness+0.0692-month trend: +0.0392-month trend+0.0394-month trend: -0.0214-month trend-0.021Listing tightness: +0.021Listing tightness+0.021Near its high: -0.002Near its high-0.002

Its interest score of 58 out of 100 is driven most by seller confidence — sellers undercutting. Blue bars pushed the score up, red bars pulled it down. The ingredients are weighted by how well each one has actually predicted price moves in this market, measured on your own price history rather than assumed.

What the numbers say

Is this card interesting right now?

Above average - 58 out of 100

It ranks above 59% of the cards we track. The score describes the conditions around the card today - how sellers are pricing it, how it is trending, how steadily it trades. It is not a prediction, and it says nothing about whether you will enjoy owning the card.

Why is it interesting?

Sellers undercutting and sudden jump

People selling are asking less than the card recently sold for - holders are competing to get out. The recent move is far larger than this card's normal week-to-week wobble - something happened.

Is it becoming more popular?

Mostly yes

Compared with the Pokemon market as a whole, so a rising tide does not count as popularity. In this market these trends have tended to keep going rather than reverse.

Past month+6.8%
Past 2 months+3.3%
Past 4 months-12.9%

Is it expensive or cheap?

$20.14 - expensive for its set

At $20.14 it is expensive for its set - number 21 of 130 by price. Against other Holo Rare cards it sits at the 61th percentile. It is at or near its highest price of the past year.

What makes this card unusual?

An ordinary Holo Rare from a 27-year-old set

Holo Rare is a common tier - 3,435 tracked cards share it. This is the Holofoil printing, which is priced as a completely separate market from the other printings of the same artwork. The set is about 27 years old, so surviving copies in good condition get scarcer over time.

Could you actually buy or sell it?

Yes, with patience

The price changed in 39% of our checks over the past year across 365 observations. TCGplayer's market price only updates when a copy sells, so a low figure means the price shown may be stale and any trend reading is built on very few real sales.

Is grading worth considering?

Probably not

At $20.14 raw, a graded copy would need to fetch about $42.14 just to cover the roughly $22.00 fee - and that assumes a high grade. The maths only works on cards that grade well and carry a real premium for it. This is a vintage set, where condition varies far more between copies and grading matters correspondingly more. This is a rule of thumb from the card's raw price, age and price stability. We track raw ungraded prices only - no graded sales and no population data - so this cannot tell you what a PSA 10 of this card is worth. Check a graded price guide before spending money.

What happens next (60 days)

Slightly ahead of the market

An estimated 60% chance of beating the typical tracked card over the next 60 days, by around +7.4% on a middling outcome.

Chance of beating market
60%
50% would be average
Expected vs market
+7.4%
the part actually predicted
Forecast confidence
88
higher = tighter, better-grounded

$19.93 – $27.16 — 80% likely. The middle half lands between $21.17 and $24.32. Today it is $20.14.

Assumes the market as a whole drifts +4.0% over 60 days, its recent average. That part is an assumption carried forward, not a prediction — the 'vs market' figure above does not depend on it.

Prices here are TCGplayer's market price, which is an average of recent sales and lags a real move by a few weeks. Part of any short-term forecast is that lag catching up — visible in the chart, but not something you can buy at.

Every number behind this page

Market price$20.14What copies have recently sold for
Cheapest listing$11.33The lowest price anyone is currently asking
Middle of listings$16.93The midpoint of what sellers are asking
Seller confidence-15.9%Asking prices are below recent sales — sellers want out
1-month trend vs market+6.8%Outpacing the market
2-month trend vs market+3.3%Outpacing the market
4-month trend vs market-12.9%Falling behind the market
Versus same-set, same-rarity cards-21.1%Shown for interest only — this one is not part of the score
Unusual move+1.3Within its normal range of movement
Below its 12-month high-1.8%At or near its high
Day-to-day price movement0.0111Calm and steady
How often it trades39%Trades occasionally
Price checks on record365Observations in the past year
Times the price changed141How many of those were real moves
Actively tradedYesWhether there is enough activity for the trend figures to mean anything
Set age26.6 yearsVintage
Interest score59 / 100Ranks above 59% of tracked cards
TCGplayer product ID42,459For looking it up elsewhere

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