Pokespective

Lugia VSTAR (Secret) (202)

SWSH12: Silver Tempest · Secret Rare · Holofoil

Forecast: slightly behind · 40%HolofoilSettled and climbing
Price
$39.39
Interest score
29/100 — Ordinary
Pricing
Reliable pricing

Pricier than 100% of the cards we track in this set · near the top of its 12-month range ($31.68–$42.67)

Lugia VSTAR (Secret) (202) — price history
$20.00$25.00$30.00$35.00$40.00$45.00 2024-022024-072024-122025-052025-112026-042026-09

Why it scores where it does

What's driving the score
Unusual move: -0.282Unusual move-0.282Price steadiness: +0.179Price steadiness+0.1791-month trend: -0.1761-month trend-0.1762-month trend: -0.1462-month trend-0.146Seller confidence: +0.064Seller confidence+0.064Listing tightness: +0.046Listing tightness+0.046Near its high: -0.025Near its high-0.0254-month trend: -0.0194-month trend-0.019

Its interest score of 29 out of 100 is driven most by unusual move — sudden drop. Blue bars pushed the score up, red bars pulled it down. The ingredients are weighted by how well each one has actually predicted price moves in this market, measured on your own price history rather than assumed.

What the numbers say

Is this card interesting right now?

Ordinary - 29 out of 100

It ranks above 30% of the cards we track. The score describes the conditions around the card today - how sellers are pricing it, how it is trending, how steadily it trades. It is not a prediction, and it says nothing about whether you will enjoy owning the card.

Why is it interesting?

Sudden drop and very steady price

The recent drop is far larger than this card's normal movement. The price moves in small, calm steps rather than lurching around.

Is it becoming more popular?

No - losing ground

Compared with the Pokemon market as a whole, so a rising tide does not count as popularity. In this market these trends have tended to keep going rather than reverse.

Past month-7.0%
Past 2 months-11.5%
Past 4 months-11.9%

Is it expensive or cheap?

$39.39 - expensive for its set

At $39.39 it is one of the priciest cards in its set - number 2 of 357 by price. Against other Secret Rare cards it sits at the 65th percentile. It is 8% below its 12-month high. Worth knowing: in this market cards near their highs have gone on to do better than deeply discounted ones, so a big discount is not automatically a bargain.

What makes this card unusual?

Secret Rare - uncommon tier, #2 most valuable in its set

623 tracked cards share this rarity (1% of the catalogue). Only 1 card(s) in this set are worth more. This is the Holofoil printing, which is priced as a completely separate market from the other printings of the same artwork.

Could you actually buy or sell it?

Easily - it trades often

The price changed in 62% of our checks over the past year across 365 observations. TCGplayer's market price only updates when a copy sells, so a low figure means the price shown may be stale and any trend reading is built on very few real sales.

Is grading worth considering?

Probably not

At $39.39 raw, a graded copy would need to fetch about $61.39 just to cover the roughly $22.00 fee - and that assumes a high grade. The maths only works on cards that grade well and carry a real premium for it. This is a rule of thumb from the card's raw price, age and price stability. We track raw ungraded prices only - no graded sales and no population data - so this cannot tell you what a PSA 10 of this card is worth. Check a graded price guide before spending money.

What happens next (60 days)

Slightly behind the market

An estimated 40% chance of beating the typical tracked card over the next 60 days, by around -0.6% on a middling outcome.

Chance of beating market
40%
50% would be average
Expected vs market
-0.6%
the part actually predicted
Forecast confidence
98
higher = tighter, better-grounded

$36.88 – $47.35 — 80% likely. The middle half lands between $38.73 and $43.30. Today it is $39.39.

Assumes the market as a whole drifts +4.0% over 60 days, its recent average. That part is an assumption carried forward, not a prediction — the 'vs market' figure above does not depend on it.

Prices here are TCGplayer's market price, which is an average of recent sales and lags a real move by a few weeks. Part of any short-term forecast is that lag catching up — visible in the chart, but not something you can buy at.

Every number behind this page

Market price$39.39What copies have recently sold for
Cheapest listing$33.29The lowest price anyone is currently asking
Middle of listings$44.31The midpoint of what sellers are asking
Seller confidence+12.5%Asking prices are above recent sales — sellers are in no hurry
1-month trend vs market-7.0%Falling behind the market
2-month trend vs market-11.5%Falling behind the market
4-month trend vs market-11.9%Falling behind the market
Versus same-set, same-rarity cards+3.6%Shown for interest only — this one is not part of the score
Unusual move-1.7Within its normal range of movement
Below its 12-month high-7.7%Well off its high
Day-to-day price movement0.0064Calm and steady
How often it trades62%Trades readily
Price checks on record365Observations in the past year
Times the price changed225How many of those were real moves
Actively tradedYesWhether there is enough activity for the trend figures to mean anything
Set age3.9 yearsSettled and climbing
Interest score30 / 100Ranks above 30% of tracked cards
TCGplayer product ID451,995For looking it up elsewhere

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