Pokespective

Arceus VSTAR - 123/172 (Metal Card)

Miscellaneous Cards & Products · Promo · Holofoil

Forecast: slightly behind · 42%HolofoilJust released
Price
$19.62
Interest score
10/100 — Quiet
Pricing
Reliable pricing

Pricier than 68% of the cards we track in this set · near the top of its 12-month range ($7.77–$22.27)

Arceus VSTAR - 123/172 (Metal Card) — price history
$5.00$10.00$15.00$20.00 2024-022024-072024-122025-052025-112026-042026-09

Why it scores where it does

What's driving the score
Unusual move: -0.249Unusual move-0.2491-month trend: -0.2251-month trend-0.2252-month trend: -0.1722-month trend-0.172Near its high: -0.036Near its high-0.036Price steadiness: +0.028Price steadiness+0.028Seller confidence: -0.019Seller confidence-0.0194-month trend: -0.0154-month trend-0.015Listing tightness: -0.008Listing tightness-0.008

Its interest score of 10 out of 100 is driven most by unusual move — sudden drop. Blue bars pushed the score up, red bars pulled it down. The ingredients are weighted by how well each one has actually predicted price moves in this market, measured on your own price history rather than assumed.

What the numbers say

Is this card interesting right now?

Quiet - 10 out of 100

It ranks above 10% of the cards we track. The score describes the conditions around the card today - how sellers are pricing it, how it is trending, how steadily it trades. It is not a prediction, and it says nothing about whether you will enjoy owning the card.

Why is it interesting?

Sudden drop and slipping this month

The recent drop is far larger than this card's normal movement. It has fallen behind the rest of the market over the past month.

Is it becoming more popular?

No - losing ground

Compared with the Pokemon market as a whole, so a rising tide does not count as popularity. In this market these trends have tended to keep going rather than reverse.

Past month-10.7%
Past 2 months-14.4%
Past 4 months-9.7%

Is it expensive or cheap?

$19.62 - mid-priced for its set

At $19.62 it is mid-priced for its set - number 194 of 619 by price. Against other Promo cards it sits at the 64th percentile. It is 14% below its 12-month high. Worth knowing: in this market cards near their highs have gone on to do better than deeply discounted ones, so a big discount is not automatically a bargain.

What makes this card unusual?

An ordinary Promo from a recent set

Promo is a common tier - 4,010 tracked cards share it. This is the Holofoil printing, which is priced as a completely separate market from the other printings of the same artwork. The set is brand new - prices this early are driven by hype and packs still being opened, and usually settle downward.

Could you actually buy or sell it?

Easily - it trades often

The price changed in 72% of our checks over the past year across 365 observations. TCGplayer's market price only updates when a copy sells, so a low figure means the price shown may be stale and any trend reading is built on very few real sales.

Is grading worth considering?

Probably not

At $19.62 raw, a graded copy would need to fetch about $41.62 just to cover the roughly $22.00 fee - and that assumes a high grade. The maths only works on cards that grade well and carry a real premium for it. This is a rule of thumb from the card's raw price, age and price stability. We track raw ungraded prices only - no graded sales and no population data - so this cannot tell you what a PSA 10 of this card is worth. Check a graded price guide before spending money.

What happens next (60 days)

Slightly behind the market

An estimated 42% chance of beating the typical tracked card over the next 60 days, by around +0.2% on a middling outcome.

Chance of beating market
42%
50% would be average
Expected vs market
+0.2%
the part actually predicted
Forecast confidence
83
higher = tighter, better-grounded

$17.93 – $24.82 — 80% likely. The middle half lands between $19.16 and $22.20. Today it is $19.62.

Assumes the market as a whole drifts +4.0% over 60 days, its recent average. That part is an assumption carried forward, not a prediction — the 'vs market' figure above does not depend on it.

Prices here are TCGplayer's market price, which is an average of recent sales and lags a real move by a few weeks. Part of any short-term forecast is that lag catching up — visible in the chart, but not something you can buy at.

Every number behind this page

Market price$19.62What copies have recently sold for
Cheapest listing$11.99The lowest price anyone is currently asking
Middle of listings$20.95The midpoint of what sellers are asking
Seller confidence+6.8%Asking prices are above recent sales — sellers are in no hurry
1-month trend vs market-10.7%Falling behind the market
2-month trend vs market-14.4%Falling behind the market
4-month trend vs market-9.7%Falling behind the market
Versus same-set, same-rarity cards-11.2%Shown for interest only — this one is not part of the score
Unusual move-1.3Within its normal range of movement
Below its 12-month high-11.9%Well off its high
Day-to-day price movement0.0139Calm and steady
How often it trades72%Trades readily
Price checks on record365Observations in the past year
Times the price changed261How many of those were real moves
Actively tradedYesWhether there is enough activity for the trend figures to mean anything
Set age0.0 yearsJust released
Interest score10 / 100Ranks above 10% of tracked cards
TCGplayer product ID454,373For looking it up elsewhere

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