Pokespective

Lucario VSTAR - SWSH291

SWSH: Sword & Shield Promo Cards · Promo · Holofoil

Forecast: slight edge · 57%HolofoilSettled and climbing
Price
$9.85
Interest score
8/100 — Quiet
Pricing
Reliable pricing

Pricier than 72% of the cards we track in this set · near the bottom of its 12-month range ($5.60–$24.29)

Lucario VSTAR - SWSH291 — price history
$0.00$5.00$10.00$15.00$20.00$25.00 2024-022024-072024-122025-052025-112026-042026-09

Why it scores where it does

What's driving the score
2-month trend: -0.2602-month trend-0.2601-month trend: -0.2021-month trend-0.202Price steadiness: -0.154Price steadiness-0.154Seller confidence: +0.143Seller confidence+0.143Unusual move: -0.131Unusual move-0.131Near its high: -0.099Near its high-0.0994-month trend: -0.0554-month trend-0.055Listing tightness: +0.017Listing tightness+0.017

Its interest score of 8 out of 100 is driven most by 2-month trend — sliding for 2 months. Blue bars pushed the score up, red bars pulled it down. The ingredients are weighted by how well each one has actually predicted price moves in this market, measured on your own price history rather than assumed.

What the numbers say

Is this card interesting right now?

Quiet - 8 out of 100

It ranks above 9% of the cards we track. The score describes the conditions around the card today - how sellers are pricing it, how it is trending, how steadily it trades. It is not a prediction, and it says nothing about whether you will enjoy owning the card.

Why is it interesting?

Sliding for 2 months and slipping this month

It has trailed the market over the past two months. It has fallen behind the rest of the market over the past month.

Is it becoming more popular?

No - losing ground

Compared with the Pokemon market as a whole, so a rising tide does not count as popularity. In this market these trends have tended to keep going rather than reverse.

Past month-8.8%
Past 2 months-25.8%
Past 4 months-36.7%

Is it expensive or cheap?

$9.85 - expensive for its set

At $9.85 it is expensive for its set - number 97 of 345 by price. Against other Promo cards it sits at the 51th percentile. It is 147% below its 12-month high. Worth knowing: in this market cards near their highs have gone on to do better than deeply discounted ones, so a big discount is not automatically a bargain.

What makes this card unusual?

An ordinary Promo from a 7-year-old set

Promo is a common tier - 4,010 tracked cards share it. This is the Holofoil printing, which is priced as a completely separate market from the other printings of the same artwork.

Could you actually buy or sell it?

Easily - it trades often

The price changed in 99% of our checks over the past year across 365 observations. TCGplayer's market price only updates when a copy sells, so a low figure means the price shown may be stale and any trend reading is built on very few real sales.

Is grading worth considering?

No

At $9.85 raw, grading costs roughly $22.00 - more than the card itself. Only worth it for sentimental reasons. This is a rule of thumb from the card's raw price, age and price stability. We track raw ungraded prices only - no graded sales and no population data - so this cannot tell you what a PSA 10 of this card is worth. Check a graded price guide before spending money.

What happens next (60 days)

Slightly ahead of the market

An estimated 57% chance of beating the typical tracked card over the next 60 days, by around +4.6% on a middling outcome.

Chance of beating market
57%
50% would be average
Expected vs market
+4.6%
the part actually predicted
Forecast confidence
53
higher = tighter, better-grounded

$8.24 – $14.29 — 80% likely. The middle half lands between $9.56 and $12.16. Today it is $9.85.

Assumes the market as a whole drifts +4.0% over 60 days, its recent average. That part is an assumption carried forward, not a prediction — the 'vs market' figure above does not depend on it.

Prices here are TCGplayer's market price, which is an average of recent sales and lags a real move by a few weeks. Part of any short-term forecast is that lag catching up — visible in the chart, but not something you can buy at.

Every number behind this page

Market price$9.85What copies have recently sold for
Cheapest listing$7.91The lowest price anyone is currently asking
Middle of listings$12.00The midpoint of what sellers are asking
Seller confidence+21.8%Asking prices are above recent sales — sellers are in no hurry
1-month trend vs market-8.8%Falling behind the market
2-month trend vs market-25.8%Falling behind the market
4-month trend vs market-36.7%Falling behind the market
Versus same-set, same-rarity cards-29.5%Shown for interest only — this one is not part of the score
Unusual move-0.4Within its normal range of movement
Below its 12-month high-59.4%Well off its high
Day-to-day price movement0.0403Jumpy
How often it trades99%Trades readily
Price checks on record365Observations in the past year
Times the price changed360How many of those were real moves
Actively tradedYesWhether there is enough activity for the trend figures to mean anything
Set age6.9 yearsSettled and climbing
Interest score9 / 100Ranks above 9% of tracked cards
TCGplayer product ID475,642For looking it up elsewhere

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