Pokespective

Darkrai EX - 2016 (Shunto Sadahiro)

World Championship Decks · Ultra Rare

Forecast: ahead · 81%NormalVintage
Price
$4.76
Interest score
96/100 — Not trustworthy
Pricing
Only one listing

Pricier than 82% of the cards we track in this set · at the top of its 12-month range ($2.45–$4.76)

Darkrai EX - 2016 (Shunto Sadahiro) — price history
$2.00$3.00$4.00$5.00 2024-022024-072024-122025-052025-102026-042026-09

Why it scores where it does

What's driving the score
Seller confidence: +0.331Seller confidence+0.3311-month trend: +0.2111-month trend+0.211Unusual move: +0.163Unusual move+0.163Listing tightness: +0.145Listing tightness+0.1452-month trend: +0.1122-month trend+0.112Price steadiness: -0.065Price steadiness-0.065Near its high: +0.042Near its high+0.0424-month trend: +0.0404-month trend+0.040

Its interest score of 96 out of 100 is driven most by seller confidence — sellers holding firm. Blue bars pushed the score up, red bars pulled it down. The ingredients are weighted by how well each one has actually predicted price moves in this market, measured on your own price history rather than assumed.

What the numbers say

Is this card interesting right now?

Scores 96, but do not trust it

The cheapest listing and the middle of the listings are the same price ($9.99), which means there is effectively one copy for sale. One optimistic seller is not a market. Ignore the interest score here and go look at the actual listings. The score is computed the same way as for every other card, and on this one the ingredients are being fed by a listing that does not represent a real market. Treat the ranking as unreliable until the listings look normal again.

Why is it interesting?

Sellers holding firm and climbing this month

People selling this card are asking more than it has recently sold for. In this market that has been the single most reliable sign that supply is tight. It has outpaced the rest of the market over the past month. Working against it: the price lurches around, so what you pay depends heavily on timing.

Is it becoming more popular?

Yes - consistently

Compared with the Pokemon market as a whole, so a rising tide does not count as popularity. In this market these trends have tended to keep going rather than reverse.

Past month+13.8%
Past 2 months+11.2%
Past 4 months+50.4%

Is it expensive or cheap?

$4.76 - expensive for its set

At $4.76 it is expensive for its set - number 353 of 1989 by price. Against other Ultra Rare cards it sits at the 40th percentile. It is at or near its highest price of the past year.

What makes this card unusual?

An ordinary Ultra Rare from a 8-year-old set

Ultra Rare is a common tier - 2,592 tracked cards share it. The set is about 8 years old, so surviving copies in good condition get scarcer over time.

Could you actually buy or sell it?

Slowly - it rarely trades

The price changed in 13% of our checks over the past year across 316 observations. TCGplayer's market price only updates when a copy sells, so a low figure means the price shown may be stale and any trend reading is built on very few real sales.

Is grading worth considering?

No

At $4.76 raw, grading costs roughly $22.00 - more than the card itself. Only worth it for sentimental reasons. This is a vintage set, where condition varies far more between copies and grading matters correspondingly more. This is a rule of thumb from the card's raw price, age and price stability. We track raw ungraded prices only - no graded sales and no population data - so this cannot tell you what a PSA 10 of this card is worth. Check a graded price guide before spending money.

What happens next (60 days)

Expected to outpace the market

An estimated 81% chance of beating the typical tracked card over the next 60 days, by around +17.8% on a middling outcome.

Only one listing: treat this forecast as unusable. The model's heaviest input is seller confidence, and that is the exact figure this card's listings distort.

Chance of beating market
81%
not meaningful here
Expected vs market
+17.8%
not meaningful here
Forecast confidence
49
thin data — treat loosely

$4.93 – $7.31 — 80% likely. The middle half lands between $5.37 and $6.43. Today it is $4.76.

Assumes the market as a whole drifts +4.0% over 60 days, its recent average. That part is an assumption carried forward, not a prediction — the 'vs market' figure above does not depend on it.

Prices here are TCGplayer's market price, which is an average of recent sales and lags a real move by a few weeks. Part of any short-term forecast is that lag catching up — visible in the chart, but not something you can buy at.

Every number behind this page

Market price$4.76What copies have recently sold for
Cheapest listing$9.99The lowest price anyone is currently asking
Middle of listings$9.99The midpoint of what sellers are asking
Seller confidence+109.9%Asking prices are above recent sales — sellers are in no hurry
1-month trend vs market+13.8%Outpacing the market
2-month trend vs market+11.2%Outpacing the market
4-month trend vs market+50.4%Outpacing the market
Versus same-set, same-rarity cards+50.5%Shown for interest only — this one is not part of the score
Unusual move+1.1Within its normal range of movement
Below its 12-month high-0.0%At or near its high
Day-to-day price movement0.0228Jumpy
How often it trades13%Rarely trades — the price shown may be stale
Price checks on record316Observations in the past year
Times the price changed42How many of those were real moves
Actively tradedYesWhether there is enough activity for the trend figures to mean anything
Set age8.2 yearsVintage
Interest score97 / 100Ranks above 97% of tracked cards
TCGplayer product ID481,738For looking it up elsewhere

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