Pokespective

Lugia VSTAR

Jumbo Cards · Ultra Rare · Holofoil

Forecast: slight edge · 60%HolofoilVintage
Price
$49.99
Interest score
79/100 — Not trustworthy
Pricing
Only one listing

Pricier than 89% of the cards we track in this set · at the top of its 12-month range ($26.87–$49.99)

Lugia VSTAR — price history
$25.00$30.00$35.00$40.00$45.00$50.00 2024-022024-062024-102025-022025-062025-112026-09

Why it scores where it does

What's driving the score
2-month trend: +0.2352-month trend+0.235Seller confidence: -0.169Seller confidence-0.169Listing tightness: +0.145Listing tightness+0.145Price steadiness: -0.045Price steadiness-0.045Near its high: +0.042Near its high+0.0424-month trend: +0.0244-month trend+0.024

Its interest score of 79 out of 100 is driven most by 2-month trend — climbing for 2 months. Blue bars pushed the score up, red bars pulled it down. The ingredients are weighted by how well each one has actually predicted price moves in this market, measured on your own price history rather than assumed. Could not be measured for this card: 1-month trend, unusual move — the score is worked out from the rest.

What the numbers say

Is this card interesting right now?

Scores 79, but do not trust it

The cheapest listing and the middle of the listings are the same price ($49.99), which means there is effectively one copy for sale. One optimistic seller is not a market. Ignore the interest score here and go look at the actual listings. The score is computed the same way as for every other card, and on this one the ingredients are being fed by a listing that does not represent a real market. Treat the ranking as unreliable until the listings look normal again.

Why is it interesting?

Climbing for 2 months and sellers undercutting

It has outpaced the market over two months, which is long enough to be a trend rather than a blip. People selling are asking less than the card recently sold for - holders are competing to get out.

Is it becoming more popular?

Yes - consistently

Compared with the Pokemon market as a whole, so a rising tide does not count as popularity. In this market these trends have tended to keep going rather than reverse.

Past 2 months+36.2%
Past 4 months+22.8%

Is it expensive or cheap?

$49.99 - expensive for its set

At $49.99 it is expensive for its set - number 36 of 345 by price. Against other Ultra Rare cards it sits at the 76th percentile - toward the top. It is at or near its highest price of the past year.

What makes this card unusual?

An ordinary Ultra Rare from a 11-year-old set

Ultra Rare is a common tier - 2,592 tracked cards share it. This is the Holofoil printing, which is priced as a completely separate market from the other printings of the same artwork. The set is about 11 years old, so surviving copies in good condition get scarcer over time.

Could you actually buy or sell it?

Slowly - it rarely trades

The price changed in 9% of our checks over the past year across 171 observations. TCGplayer's market price only updates when a copy sells, so a low figure means the price shown may be stale and any trend reading is built on very few real sales.

Is grading worth considering?

Worth a look

At $49.99 raw, the roughly $22.00 fee is about 44% of the card's value, so a strong grade can pay for itself. It hinges entirely on condition - centering, edges and surface. This is a vintage set, where condition varies far more between copies and grading matters correspondingly more. This card trades infrequently, so a graded copy could take a while to sell. This is a rule of thumb from the card's raw price, age and price stability. We track raw ungraded prices only - no graded sales and no population data - so this cannot tell you what a PSA 10 of this card is worth. Check a graded price guide before spending money.

What happens next (60 days)

Slightly ahead of the market

An estimated 60% chance of beating the typical tracked card over the next 60 days, by around +5.6% on a middling outcome.

Only one listing: treat this forecast as unusable. The model's heaviest input is seller confidence, and that is the exact figure this card's listings distort.

Chance of beating market
60%
not meaningful here
Expected vs market
+5.6%
not meaningful here
Forecast confidence
41
thin data — treat loosely

$46.69 – $68.13 — 80% likely. The middle half lands between $50.77 and $60.26. Today it is $49.99.

Assumes the market as a whole drifts +4.0% over 60 days, its recent average. That part is an assumption carried forward, not a prediction — the 'vs market' figure above does not depend on it.

Prices here are TCGplayer's market price, which is an average of recent sales and lags a real move by a few weeks. Part of any short-term forecast is that lag catching up — visible in the chart, but not something you can buy at.

Every number behind this page

Market price$49.99What copies have recently sold for
Cheapest listing$49.99The lowest price anyone is currently asking
Middle of listings$49.99The midpoint of what sellers are asking
Seller confidence+0.0%Asking prices are below recent sales — sellers want out
2-month trend vs market+36.2%Outpacing the market
4-month trend vs market+22.8%Outpacing the market
Versus same-set, same-rarity cards+5.6%Shown for interest only — this one is not part of the score
Below its 12-month high-0.0%At or near its high
Day-to-day price movement0.0206Jumpy
How often it trades9%Rarely trades — the price shown may be stale
Price checks on record171Observations in the past year
Times the price changed16How many of those were real moves
Actively tradedYesWhether there is enough activity for the trend figures to mean anything
Set age11.5 yearsVintage
Interest score79 / 100Ranks above 79% of tracked cards
TCGplayer product ID484,449For looking it up elsewhere

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