Pokespective

Evolution Incense - 163/202

Prize Pack Series Cards · Uncommon

Forecast: in line · 47%NormalSettled and climbing
Price
$5.38
Interest score
72/100 — Above average
Pricing
Rarely trades

Pricier than 80% of the cards we track in this set · at the top of its 12-month range ($5.04–$5.39)

Evolution Incense - 163/202 — price history
$2.20$2.30$2.40$2.50$2.60$2.70$2.80$2.90$3.00$3.10$3.20$3.30 2024-022024-072025-012025-062025-112026-042026-09

Why it scores where it does

What's driving the score
Seller confidence: +0.182Seller confidence+0.182Price steadiness: +0.124Price steadiness+0.1242-month trend: -0.0442-month trend-0.0441-month trend: -0.0351-month trend-0.035Listing tightness: +0.028Listing tightness+0.0284-month trend: -0.0174-month trend-0.017Unusual move: -0.015Unusual move-0.015Near its high: +0.011Near its high+0.011

Its interest score of 72 out of 100 is driven most by seller confidence — sellers holding firm. Blue bars pushed the score up, red bars pulled it down. The ingredients are weighted by how well each one has actually predicted price moves in this market, measured on your own price history rather than assumed.

What the numbers say

Is this card interesting right now?

Above average - 72 out of 100

It ranks above 73% of the cards we track. The score describes the conditions around the card today - how sellers are pricing it, how it is trending, how steadily it trades. It is not a prediction, and it says nothing about whether you will enjoy owning the card.

Why is it interesting?

Sellers holding firm and very steady price

People selling this card are asking more than it has recently sold for. In this market that has been the single most reliable sign that supply is tight. The price moves in small, calm steps rather than lurching around. Working against it: it has trailed the market over the past two months.

Is it becoming more popular?

No - losing ground

Compared with the Pokemon market as a whole, so a rising tide does not count as popularity. In this market these trends have tended to keep going rather than reverse.

Past month-0.5%
Past 2 months-3.2%
Past 4 months-10.7%

Is it expensive or cheap?

$5.38 - expensive for its set

At $5.38 it is expensive for its set - number 216 of 1059 by price. Against other Uncommon cards it sits at the 85th percentile - toward the top. It is at or near its highest price of the past year.

What makes this card unusual?

An ordinary Uncommon from a 4-year-old set

Uncommon is a common tier - 11,470 tracked cards share it.

Could you actually buy or sell it?

Slowly - it rarely trades

The price changed in 12% of our checks over the past year across 365 observations. TCGplayer's market price only updates when a copy sells, so a low figure means the price shown may be stale and any trend reading is built on very few real sales.

Is grading worth considering?

No

At $5.38 raw, grading costs roughly $22.00 - more than the card itself. Only worth it for sentimental reasons. This is a rule of thumb from the card's raw price, age and price stability. We track raw ungraded prices only - no graded sales and no population data - so this cannot tell you what a PSA 10 of this card is worth. Check a graded price guide before spending money.

What happens next (60 days)

Roughly in line with the market

An estimated 47% chance of beating the typical tracked card over the next 60 days, by around +1.7% on a middling outcome.

Chance of beating market
47%
50% would be average
Expected vs market
+1.7%
the part actually predicted
Forecast confidence
79
higher = tighter, better-grounded

$5.09 – $6.75 — 80% likely. The middle half lands between $5.38 and $6.10. Today it is $5.38.

Assumes the market as a whole drifts +4.0% over 60 days, its recent average. That part is an assumption carried forward, not a prediction — the 'vs market' figure above does not depend on it.

Prices here are TCGplayer's market price, which is an average of recent sales and lags a real move by a few weeks. Part of any short-term forecast is that lag catching up — visible in the chart, but not something you can buy at.

Every number behind this page

Market price$5.38What copies have recently sold for
Cheapest listing$4.84The lowest price anyone is currently asking
Middle of listings$6.95The midpoint of what sellers are asking
Seller confidence+29.2%Asking prices are above recent sales — sellers are in no hurry
1-month trend vs market-0.5%Falling behind the market
2-month trend vs market-3.2%Falling behind the market
4-month trend vs market-10.7%Falling behind the market
Versus same-set, same-rarity cards-18.9%Shown for interest only — this one is not part of the score
Unusual move+0.2Within its normal range of movement
Below its 12-month high-0.2%At or near its high
Day-to-day price movement0.0084Calm and steady
How often it trades12%Rarely trades — the price shown may be stale
Price checks on record365Observations in the past year
Times the price changed42How many of those were real moves
Actively tradedYesWhether there is enough activity for the trend figures to mean anything
Set age3.8 yearsSettled and climbing
Interest score73 / 100Ranks above 73% of tracked cards
TCGplayer product ID498,193For looking it up elsewhere

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