Pokespective

Lugia VSTAR - 2023 (Gabriel Fernandez)

World Championship Decks · Ultra Rare

Forecast: slight edge · 54%NormalVintage
Price
$4.64
Interest score
61/100 — Above average
Pricing
Rarely trades

Pricier than 82% of the cards we track in this set · in the middle of its 12-month range ($3.52–$6.04)

Lugia VSTAR - 2023 (Gabriel Fernandez) — price history
$0.00$2.00$4.00$6.00 2024-032024-082025-012025-062025-112026-042026-09

Why it scores where it does

What's driving the score
Seller confidence: +0.108Seller confidence+0.108Near its high: -0.058Near its high-0.0582-month trend: -0.0222-month trend-0.022Listing tightness: +0.018Listing tightness+0.018Unusual move: +0.007Unusual move+0.007Price steadiness: +0.006Price steadiness+0.0061-month trend: +0.0061-month trend+0.0064-month trend: -0.0014-month trend-0.001

Its interest score of 61 out of 100 is driven most by seller confidence — sellers holding firm. Blue bars pushed the score up, red bars pulled it down. The ingredients are weighted by how well each one has actually predicted price moves in this market, measured on your own price history rather than assumed.

What the numbers say

Is this card interesting right now?

Above average - 61 out of 100

It ranks above 62% of the cards we track. The score describes the conditions around the card today - how sellers are pricing it, how it is trending, how steadily it trades. It is not a prediction, and it says nothing about whether you will enjoy owning the card.

Why is it interesting?

Sellers holding firm and well off its highs

People selling this card are asking more than it has recently sold for. In this market that has been the single most reliable sign that supply is tight. It sits well below its high of the past year.

Is it becoming more popular?

Mixed

Compared with the Pokemon market as a whole, so a rising tide does not count as popularity. In this market these trends have tended to keep going rather than reverse.

Past month+0.9%
Past 2 months-1.7%
Past 4 months-1.8%

Is it expensive or cheap?

$4.64 - expensive for its set

At $4.64 it is expensive for its set - number 362 of 1989 by price. Against other Ultra Rare cards it sits at the 40th percentile. It is 30% below its 12-month high. Worth knowing: in this market cards near their highs have gone on to do better than deeply discounted ones, so a big discount is not automatically a bargain.

What makes this card unusual?

An ordinary Ultra Rare from a 8-year-old set

Ultra Rare is a common tier - 2,592 tracked cards share it. The set is about 8 years old, so surviving copies in good condition get scarcer over time.

Could you actually buy or sell it?

Slowly - it rarely trades

The price changed in 16% of our checks over the past year across 365 observations. TCGplayer's market price only updates when a copy sells, so a low figure means the price shown may be stale and any trend reading is built on very few real sales.

Is grading worth considering?

No

At $4.64 raw, grading costs roughly $22.00 - more than the card itself. Only worth it for sentimental reasons. This is a vintage set, where condition varies far more between copies and grading matters correspondingly more. This is a rule of thumb from the card's raw price, age and price stability. We track raw ungraded prices only - no graded sales and no population data - so this cannot tell you what a PSA 10 of this card is worth. Check a graded price guide before spending money.

What happens next (60 days)

Slightly ahead of the market

An estimated 54% chance of beating the typical tracked card over the next 60 days, by around +2.5% on a middling outcome.

Chance of beating market
54%
50% would be average
Expected vs market
+2.5%
the part actually predicted
Forecast confidence
65
higher = tighter, better-grounded

$4.31 – $6.07 — 80% likely. The middle half lands between $4.62 and $5.40. Today it is $4.64.

Assumes the market as a whole drifts +4.0% over 60 days, its recent average. That part is an assumption carried forward, not a prediction — the 'vs market' figure above does not depend on it.

Prices here are TCGplayer's market price, which is an average of recent sales and lags a real move by a few weeks. Part of any short-term forecast is that lag catching up — visible in the chart, but not something you can buy at.

Every number behind this page

Market price$4.64What copies have recently sold for
Cheapest listing$3.59The lowest price anyone is currently asking
Middle of listings$5.42The midpoint of what sellers are asking
Seller confidence+16.8%Asking prices are above recent sales — sellers are in no hurry
1-month trend vs market+0.9%Outpacing the market
2-month trend vs market-1.7%Falling behind the market
4-month trend vs market-1.8%Falling behind the market
Versus same-set, same-rarity cards-1.7%Shown for interest only — this one is not part of the score
Unusual move+0.3Within its normal range of movement
Below its 12-month high-23.2%Well off its high
Day-to-day price movement0.0157Calm and steady
How often it trades16%Rarely trades — the price shown may be stale
Price checks on record365Observations in the past year
Times the price changed60How many of those were real moves
Actively tradedYesWhether there is enough activity for the trend figures to mean anything
Set age8.2 yearsVintage
Interest score62 / 100Ranks above 62% of tracked cards
TCGplayer product ID541,766For looking it up elsewhere

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