Pokespective

Surfer - 293/217

ME: Ascended Heroes · Special Illustration Rare · Holofoil

Forecast: behind · 34%HolofoilBoxes still being opened
Price
$19.38
Interest score
16/100 — Quiet
Pricing
Reliable pricing

Pricier than 96% of the cards we track in this set · at the bottom of its 12-month range ($19.15–$155.00)

Surfer - 293/217 — price history
$50.00$100.00$150.00 2026-012026-032026-042026-052026-072026-082026-09

Why it scores where it does

What's driving the score
2-month trend: -0.2562-month trend-0.256Unusual move: -0.195Unusual move-0.1951-month trend: -0.1631-month trend-0.163Near its high: -0.137Near its high-0.137Seller confidence: +0.103Seller confidence+0.103Price steadiness: +0.067Price steadiness+0.067Listing tightness: +0.065Listing tightness+0.0654-month trend: -0.0644-month trend-0.064

Its interest score of 16 out of 100 is driven most by 2-month trend — sliding for 2 months. Blue bars pushed the score up, red bars pulled it down. The ingredients are weighted by how well each one has actually predicted price moves in this market, measured on your own price history rather than assumed.

What the numbers say

Is this card interesting right now?

Quiet - 16 out of 100

It ranks above 16% of the cards we track. The score describes the conditions around the card today - how sellers are pricing it, how it is trending, how steadily it trades. It is not a prediction, and it says nothing about whether you will enjoy owning the card.

Why is it interesting?

Sliding for 2 months and sudden drop

It has trailed the market over the past two months. The recent drop is far larger than this card's normal movement.

Is it becoming more popular?

No - losing ground

Compared with the Pokemon market as a whole, so a rising tide does not count as popularity. In this market these trends have tended to keep going rather than reverse.

Past month-6.1%
Past 2 months-25.1%
Past 4 months-44.9%

Is it expensive or cheap?

$19.38 - expensive for its set

At $19.38 it is one of the priciest cards in its set - number 28 of 628 by price. Against other Special Illustration Rare cards it sits at the 25th percentile. It is 700% below its 12-month high. Worth knowing: in this market cards near their highs have gone on to do better than deeply discounted ones, so a big discount is not automatically a bargain.

What makes this card unusual?

Special Illustration Rare - genuinely scarce

Only 232 of the cards we track are Special Illustration Rare - under 0.5% of the catalogue. This is the Holofoil printing, which is priced as a completely separate market from the other printings of the same artwork.

Could you actually buy or sell it?

Easily - it trades often

The price changed in 97% of our checks over the past year across 236 observations. TCGplayer's market price only updates when a copy sells, so a low figure means the price shown may be stale and any trend reading is built on very few real sales.

Is grading worth considering?

Probably not

At $19.38 raw, a graded copy would need to fetch about $41.38 just to cover the roughly $22.00 fee - and that assumes a high grade. The maths only works on cards that grade well and carry a real premium for it. This is a rule of thumb from the card's raw price, age and price stability. We track raw ungraded prices only - no graded sales and no population data - so this cannot tell you what a PSA 10 of this card is worth. Check a graded price guide before spending money.

What happens next (60 days)

Expected to lag the market

An estimated 34% chance of beating the typical tracked card over the next 60 days, by around -3.2% on a middling outcome.

Chance of beating market
34%
50% would be average
Expected vs market
-3.2%
the part actually predicted
Forecast confidence
86
higher = tighter, better-grounded

$17.27 – $23.56 — 80% likely. The middle half lands between $18.35 and $21.09. Today it is $19.38.

Assumes the market as a whole drifts +4.0% over 60 days, its recent average. That part is an assumption carried forward, not a prediction — the 'vs market' figure above does not depend on it.

Prices here are TCGplayer's market price, which is an average of recent sales and lags a real move by a few weeks. Part of any short-term forecast is that lag catching up — visible in the chart, but not something you can buy at.

Every number behind this page

Market price$19.38What copies have recently sold for
Cheapest listing$18.09The lowest price anyone is currently asking
Middle of listings$22.51The midpoint of what sellers are asking
Seller confidence+16.2%Asking prices are above recent sales — sellers are in no hurry
1-month trend vs market-6.1%Falling behind the market
2-month trend vs market-25.1%Falling behind the market
4-month trend vs market-44.9%Falling behind the market
Versus same-set, same-rarity cards-4.6%Shown for interest only — this one is not part of the score
Unusual move-0.8Within its normal range of movement
Below its 12-month high-87.5%Well off its high
Day-to-day price movement0.0113Calm and steady
How often it trades97%Trades readily
Price checks on record236Observations in the past year
Times the price changed229How many of those were real moves
Actively tradedYesWhether there is enough activity for the trend figures to mean anything
Set age0.6 yearsBoxes still being opened
Interest score16 / 100Ranks above 16% of tracked cards
TCGplayer product ID676,105For looking it up elsewhere

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