ME04: Chaos Rising · Special Illustration Rare · Holofoil
Pricier than 99% of the cards we track in this set · at the bottom of its 12-month range ($49.12–$129.32)
Its interest score of 5 out of 100 is driven most by unusual move — sudden drop. Blue bars pushed the score up, red bars pulled it down. The ingredients are weighted by how well each one has actually predicted price moves in this market, measured on your own price history rather than assumed.
Is this card interesting right now?
Quiet - 5 out of 100
It ranks above 5% of the cards we track. The score describes the conditions around the card today - how sellers are pricing it, how it is trending, how steadily it trades. It is not a prediction, and it says nothing about whether you will enjoy owning the card.
Why is it interesting?
Sudden drop and sliding for 2 months
The recent drop is far larger than this card's normal movement. It has trailed the market over the past two months.
Is it becoming more popular?
No - losing ground
Compared with the Pokemon market as a whole, so a rising tide does not count as popularity. In this market these trends have tended to keep going rather than reverse.
Is it expensive or cheap?
$49.12 - expensive for its set
At $49.12 it is one of the priciest cards in its set - number 3 of 198 by price. Against other Special Illustration Rare cards it sits at the 61th percentile. It is 163% below its 12-month high. Worth knowing: in this market cards near their highs have gone on to do better than deeply discounted ones, so a big discount is not automatically a bargain.
What makes this card unusual?
Special Illustration Rare - genuinely scarce, #3 most valuable in its set
Only 232 of the cards we track are Special Illustration Rare - under 0.5% of the catalogue. Only 2 card(s) in this set are worth more. This is the Holofoil printing, which is priced as a completely separate market from the other printings of the same artwork. The set is brand new - prices this early are driven by hype and packs still being opened, and usually settle downward.
Could you actually buy or sell it?
Easily - it trades often
The price changed in 98% of our checks over the past year across 127 observations. TCGplayer's market price only updates when a copy sells, so a low figure means the price shown may be stale and any trend reading is built on very few real sales.
Is grading worth considering?
Worth a look
At $49.12 raw, the roughly $22.00 fee is about 45% of the card's value, so a strong grade can pay for itself. It hinges entirely on condition - centering, edges and surface. This is a rule of thumb from the card's raw price, age and price stability. We track raw ungraded prices only - no graded sales and no population data - so this cannot tell you what a PSA 10 of this card is worth. Check a graded price guide before spending money.
Expected to lag the market
An estimated 25% chance of beating the typical tracked card over the next 60 days, by around -2.6% on a middling outcome.
$43.84 – $60.64 — 80% likely. The middle half lands between $46.71 and $54.01. Today it is $49.12.
Assumes the market as a whole drifts +4.0% over 60 days, its recent average. That part is an assumption carried forward, not a prediction — the 'vs market' figure above does not depend on it.
Prices here are TCGplayer's market price, which is an average of recent sales and lags a real move by a few weeks. Part of any short-term forecast is that lag catching up — visible in the chart, but not something you can buy at.
| Market price | $49.12 | What copies have recently sold for |
| Cheapest listing | $48.00 | The lowest price anyone is currently asking |
| Middle of listings | $56.10 | The midpoint of what sellers are asking |
| Seller confidence | +14.2% | Asking prices are above recent sales — sellers are in no hurry |
| 1-month trend vs market | -15.4% | Falling behind the market |
| 2-month trend vs market | -30.0% | Falling behind the market |
| 4-month trend vs market | -53.6% | Falling behind the market |
| Versus same-set, same-rarity cards | +35.5% | Shown for interest only — this one is not part of the score |
| Unusual move | -2.3 | Within its normal range of movement |
| Below its 12-month high | -62.0% | Well off its high |
| Day-to-day price movement | 0.0124 | Calm and steady |
| How often it trades | 98% | Trades readily |
| Price checks on record | 127 | Observations in the past year |
| Times the price changed | 125 | How many of those were real moves |
| Actively traded | Yes | Whether there is enough activity for the trend figures to mean anything |
| Set age | 0.3 years | Boxes still being opened |
| Interest score | 5 / 100 | Ranks above 5% of tracked cards |
| TCGplayer product ID | 693,465 | For looking it up elsewhere |