Pokespective

Erika's Bellsprout

Gym Challenge · Uncommon · 1st Edition

Forecast: slightly behind · 44%1st EditionVintage
Price
$4.70
Interest score
34/100 — Ordinary
Pricing
Rarely trades

Pricier than 43% of the cards we track in this set · near the top of its 12-month range ($3.36–$4.83)

Erika's Bellsprout — price history
$1.40$1.50$1.60$1.70$1.80$1.90$2.00$2.10$2.20$2.30$2.40$2.50 2024-022024-072024-122025-052025-112026-042026-09

Why it scores where it does

What's driving the score
2-month trend: -0.0902-month trend-0.090Unusual move: -0.079Unusual move-0.0791-month trend: -0.0771-month trend-0.077Listing tightness: -0.029Listing tightness-0.029Seller confidence: -0.029Seller confidence-0.029Price steadiness: +0.025Price steadiness+0.0254-month trend: -0.0164-month trend-0.016Near its high: -0.006Near its high-0.006

Its interest score of 34 out of 100 is driven most by 2-month trend — sliding for 2 months. Blue bars pushed the score up, red bars pulled it down. The ingredients are weighted by how well each one has actually predicted price moves in this market, measured on your own price history rather than assumed.

What the numbers say

Is this card interesting right now?

Ordinary - 34 out of 100

It ranks above 35% of the cards we track. The score describes the conditions around the card today - how sellers are pricing it, how it is trending, how steadily it trades. It is not a prediction, and it says nothing about whether you will enjoy owning the card.

Why is it interesting?

Sliding for 2 months and sudden drop

It has trailed the market over the past two months. The recent drop is far larger than this card's normal movement.

Is it becoming more popular?

No - losing ground

Compared with the Pokemon market as a whole, so a rising tide does not count as popularity. In this market these trends have tended to keep going rather than reverse.

Past month-1.9%
Past 2 months-6.4%
Past 4 months-10.3%

Is it expensive or cheap?

$4.70 - mid-priced for its set

At $4.70 it is mid-priced for its set - number 151 of 264 by price. Against other Uncommon cards it sits at the 83th percentile - toward the top. It is at or near its highest price of the past year.

What makes this card unusual?

An ordinary Uncommon from a 26-year-old set

Uncommon is a common tier - 11,470 tracked cards share it. This is the 1st Edition printing, which is priced as a completely separate market from the other printings of the same artwork. The set is about 26 years old, so surviving copies in good condition get scarcer over time.

Could you actually buy or sell it?

Slowly - it rarely trades

The price changed in 19% of our checks over the past year across 365 observations. TCGplayer's market price only updates when a copy sells, so a low figure means the price shown may be stale and any trend reading is built on very few real sales.

Is grading worth considering?

No

At $4.70 raw, grading costs roughly $22.00 - more than the card itself. Only worth it for sentimental reasons. This is a vintage set, where condition varies far more between copies and grading matters correspondingly more. This is a rule of thumb from the card's raw price, age and price stability. We track raw ungraded prices only - no graded sales and no population data - so this cannot tell you what a PSA 10 of this card is worth. Check a graded price guide before spending money.

What happens next (60 days)

Slightly behind the market

An estimated 44% chance of beating the typical tracked card over the next 60 days, by around +0.9% on a middling outcome.

Chance of beating market
44%
50% would be average
Expected vs market
+0.9%
the part actually predicted
Forecast confidence
73
higher = tighter, better-grounded

$4.32 – $5.99 — 80% likely. The middle half lands between $4.62 and $5.36. Today it is $4.70.

Assumes the market as a whole drifts +4.0% over 60 days, its recent average. That part is an assumption carried forward, not a prediction — the 'vs market' figure above does not depend on it.

Prices here are TCGplayer's market price, which is an average of recent sales and lags a real move by a few weeks. Part of any short-term forecast is that lag catching up — visible in the chart, but not something you can buy at.

Every number behind this page

Market price$4.70What copies have recently sold for
Cheapest listing$2.47The lowest price anyone is currently asking
Middle of listings$4.99The midpoint of what sellers are asking
Seller confidence+6.2%Asking prices are above recent sales — sellers are in no hurry
1-month trend vs market-1.9%Falling behind the market
2-month trend vs market-6.4%Falling behind the market
4-month trend vs market-10.3%Falling behind the market
Versus same-set, same-rarity cards-2.9%Shown for interest only — this one is not part of the score
Unusual move-0.1Within its normal range of movement
Below its 12-month high-2.7%At or near its high
Day-to-day price movement0.0141Calm and steady
How often it trades19%Rarely trades — the price shown may be stale
Price checks on record365Observations in the past year
Times the price changed71How many of those were real moves
Actively tradedYesWhether there is enough activity for the trend figures to mean anything
Set age25.9 yearsVintage
Interest score35 / 100Ranks above 35% of tracked cards
TCGplayer product ID85,283For looking it up elsewhere

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