Pokespective

Tropical Wind - 026 (2004 World Championships) [Participation]

Nintendo Promos · Promo

Forecast: slight edge · 61%NormalJust released
Price
$223.50
Interest score
79/100 — Not trustworthy
Pricing
Very few listings

Pricier than 81% of the cards we track in this set · at the top of its 12-month range ($49.17–$223.50)

Tropical Wind - 026 (2004 World Championships) [Participation] — price history
$50.00$100.00$150.00$200.00 2024-022024-072024-122025-052025-112026-04

Why it scores where it does

What's driving the score
Seller confidence: +0.458Seller confidence+0.458Price steadiness: -0.173Price steadiness-0.173Listing tightness: -0.099Listing tightness-0.0991-month trend: +0.0931-month trend+0.093Near its high: +0.042Near its high+0.0422-month trend: +0.0302-month trend+0.0304-month trend: +0.0024-month trend+0.002Unusual move: +0.002Unusual move+0.002

Its interest score of 79 out of 100 is driven most by seller confidence — sellers holding firm. Blue bars pushed the score up, red bars pulled it down. The ingredients are weighted by how well each one has actually predicted price moves in this market, measured on your own price history rather than assumed.

What the numbers say

Is this card interesting right now?

Scores 79, but do not trust it

Asking prices are 4.2x what the card last sold for. At that extreme this is one or two outlier listings on a nearly empty page, not sellers holding firm - and seller confidence is the heaviest ingredient in the score. Check the real listings before believing this ranking. The score is computed the same way as for every other card, and on this one the ingredients are being fed by a listing that does not represent a real market. Treat the ranking as unreliable until the listings look normal again.

Why is it interesting?

Sellers holding firm and jumpy price

People selling this card are asking more than it has recently sold for. In this market that has been the single most reliable sign that supply is tight. The price lurches around, so what you pay depends heavily on timing.

Is it becoming more popular?

Yes - consistently

Compared with the Pokemon market as a whole, so a rising tide does not count as popularity. In this market these trends have tended to keep going rather than reverse.

Past month+4.7%
Past 2 months+2.6%
Past 4 months+0.4%

Is it expensive or cheap?

$223.50 - expensive for its set

At $223.50 it is expensive for its set - number 17 of 99 by price. Against other Promo cards it sits at the 96th percentile - toward the top. It is at or near its highest price of the past year.

What makes this card unusual?

An ordinary Promo from a recent set

Promo is a common tier - 4,010 tracked cards share it. The set is brand new - prices this early are driven by hype and packs still being opened, and usually settle downward.

Could you actually buy or sell it?

Slowly - it rarely trades

The price changed in 9% of our checks over the past year across 348 observations. TCGplayer's market price only updates when a copy sells, so a low figure means the price shown may be stale and any trend reading is built on very few real sales.

Is grading worth considering?

Usually yes

At $223.50 raw, the roughly $22.00 fee is minor next to the card's value, and cards at this level are usually worth protecting and authenticating regardless of the premium. This card trades infrequently, so a graded copy could take a while to sell. This is a rule of thumb from the card's raw price, age and price stability. We track raw ungraded prices only - no graded sales and no population data - so this cannot tell you what a PSA 10 of this card is worth. Check a graded price guide before spending money.

What happens next (60 days)

Slightly ahead of the market

An estimated 61% chance of beating the typical tracked card over the next 60 days, by around -1.9% on a middling outcome.

Very few listings: treat this forecast as unusable. The model's heaviest input is seller confidence, and that is the exact figure this card's listings distort.

Chance of beating market
61%
not meaningful here
Expected vs market
-1.9%
not meaningful here
Forecast confidence
34
thin data — treat loosely

$172.63 – $309.59 — 80% likely. The middle half lands between $202.09 and $260.83. Today it is $223.50.

Assumes the market as a whole drifts +4.0% over 60 days, its recent average. That part is an assumption carried forward, not a prediction — the 'vs market' figure above does not depend on it.

Prices here are TCGplayer's market price, which is an average of recent sales and lags a real move by a few weeks. Part of any short-term forecast is that lag catching up — visible in the chart, but not something you can buy at.

Every number behind this page

Market price$223.50What copies have recently sold for
Cheapest listing$200.00The lowest price anyone is currently asking
Middle of listings$928.28The midpoint of what sellers are asking
Seller confidence+315.3%Asking prices are above recent sales — sellers are in no hurry
1-month trend vs market+4.7%Outpacing the market
2-month trend vs market+2.6%Outpacing the market
4-month trend vs market+0.4%Outpacing the market
Versus same-set, same-rarity cards-16.0%Shown for interest only — this one is not part of the score
Unusual move+0.2Within its normal range of movement
Below its 12-month high-0.0%At or near its high
Day-to-day price movement0.0462Jumpy
How often it trades9%Rarely trades — the price shown may be stale
Price checks on record348Observations in the past year
Times the price changed30How many of those were real moves
Actively tradedYesWhether there is enough activity for the trend figures to mean anything
Set age0.0 yearsJust released
Interest score80 / 100Ranks above 80% of tracked cards
TCGplayer product ID90,053For looking it up elsewhere

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