Pokespective

Weakness Policy (164 Secret Rare)

XY - Primal Clash · Secret Rare · Holofoil

Forecast: slight edge · 61%HolofoilVintage
Price
$7.21
Interest score
52/100 — Ordinary
Pricing
Rarely trades

Pricier than 86% of the cards we track in this set · at the top of its 12-month range ($4.66–$7.21)

Weakness Policy (164 Secret Rare) — price history
$4.00$5.00$6.00$7.00 2024-022024-072024-122025-052025-112026-042026-09

Why it scores where it does

What's driving the score
Seller confidence: -0.485Seller confidence-0.4852-month trend: +0.1262-month trend+0.126Unusual move: +0.107Unusual move+0.1071-month trend: +0.1001-month trend+0.100Near its high: +0.042Near its high+0.042Listing tightness: +0.021Listing tightness+0.0214-month trend: +0.0124-month trend+0.012Price steadiness: +0.012Price steadiness+0.012

Its interest score of 52 out of 100 is driven most by seller confidence — sellers undercutting. Blue bars pushed the score up, red bars pulled it down. The ingredients are weighted by how well each one has actually predicted price moves in this market, measured on your own price history rather than assumed.

What the numbers say

Is this card interesting right now?

Ordinary - 52 out of 100

It ranks above 53% of the cards we track. The score describes the conditions around the card today - how sellers are pricing it, how it is trending, how steadily it trades. It is not a prediction, and it says nothing about whether you will enjoy owning the card.

Why is it interesting?

Sellers undercutting and climbing for 2 months

People selling are asking less than the card recently sold for - holders are competing to get out. It has outpaced the market over two months, which is long enough to be a trend rather than a blip.

Is it becoming more popular?

Yes - consistently

Compared with the Pokemon market as a whole, so a rising tide does not count as popularity. In this market these trends have tended to keep going rather than reverse.

Past month+5.1%
Past 2 months+13.3%
Past 4 months+8.5%

Is it expensive or cheap?

$7.21 - expensive for its set

At $7.21 it is expensive for its set - number 41 of 296 by price. Against other Secret Rare cards it sits at the 27th percentile. It is at or near its highest price of the past year.

What makes this card unusual?

Secret Rare - uncommon tier

623 tracked cards share this rarity (1% of the catalogue). This is the Holofoil printing, which is priced as a completely separate market from the other printings of the same artwork. The set is about 12 years old, so surviving copies in good condition get scarcer over time.

Could you actually buy or sell it?

Slowly - it rarely trades

The price changed in 17% of our checks over the past year across 365 observations. TCGplayer's market price only updates when a copy sells, so a low figure means the price shown may be stale and any trend reading is built on very few real sales.

Is grading worth considering?

No

At $7.21 raw, grading costs roughly $22.00 - more than the card itself. Only worth it for sentimental reasons. This is a vintage set, where condition varies far more between copies and grading matters correspondingly more. This is a rule of thumb from the card's raw price, age and price stability. We track raw ungraded prices only - no graded sales and no population data - so this cannot tell you what a PSA 10 of this card is worth. Check a graded price guide before spending money.

What happens next (60 days)

Slightly ahead of the market

An estimated 61% chance of beating the typical tracked card over the next 60 days, by around +5.3% on a middling outcome.

Chance of beating market
61%
50% would be average
Expected vs market
+5.3%
the part actually predicted
Forecast confidence
67
higher = tighter, better-grounded

$6.89 – $9.65 — 80% likely. The middle half lands between $7.38 and $8.60. Today it is $7.21.

Assumes the market as a whole drifts +4.0% over 60 days, its recent average. That part is an assumption carried forward, not a prediction — the 'vs market' figure above does not depend on it.

Prices here are TCGplayer's market price, which is an average of recent sales and lags a real move by a few weeks. Part of any short-term forecast is that lag catching up — visible in the chart, but not something you can buy at.

Every number behind this page

Market price$7.21What copies have recently sold for
Cheapest listing$3.49The lowest price anyone is currently asking
Middle of listings$5.20The midpoint of what sellers are asking
Seller confidence-27.9%Asking prices are below recent sales — sellers want out
1-month trend vs market+5.1%Outpacing the market
2-month trend vs market+13.3%Outpacing the market
4-month trend vs market+8.5%Outpacing the market
Unusual move+0.8Within its normal range of movement
Below its 12-month high-0.0%At or near its high
Day-to-day price movement0.0152Calm and steady
How often it trades17%Rarely trades — the price shown may be stale
Price checks on record365Observations in the past year
Times the price changed63How many of those were real moves
Actively tradedYesWhether there is enough activity for the trend figures to mean anything
Set age11.6 yearsVintage
Interest score53 / 100Ranks above 53% of tracked cards
TCGplayer product ID96,062For looking it up elsewhere

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