Price history, listings and card analysis
Smeargle 157/214 Lost Thunder (Normal). TCGplayer market price: $6.64 as of Oct 1, 2026. Recorded price history: 967 daily market-price observations, Feb 8, 2024 to Oct 1, 2026. 12-month recorded market-price range: $0.74 – $9.00. Performance versus the market: Over the last 2 months this card fell 18.1%, while the typical card we track rose 4.6%: it has fallen behind the market by 21.8%. TCGplayer lowest listed ask: $3.51 as of Oct 1, 2026, across conditions, before shipping. TCGplayer listed median: $6.40 as of Oct 1, 2026. Pokespective interest score: 3 out of 100 (Quiet); It ranks above 3% of the cards we track. 60-day price forecast: An estimated 40% chance of beating the typical tracked card over 60 days; in a typical outcome it would end about 3.4% behind. Four times in five the price lands between $5.55 and $8.49. 60-day forecast: Likely range: $5.55 – $8.49; 8 in 10 outcomes. 60-day forecast: Middle half: $6.11 – $7.40; half of outcomes land here. 60-day forecast: Typical outcome: $6.67; -3.4% versus the market. 60-day forecast: Confidence: 59 / 100; a narrow range, not a better outcome.
Beating the market, or just riding it?
Falling behind the market
Over the last 2 months this card fell 18.1%, while the typical card we track rose 4.6%: it has fallen behind the market by 21.8%.
Describes the last 2 months, not what happens next. Not investment advice.
Is this card interesting right now?
Quiet - 3 out of 100
It ranks above 3% of the cards we track. The score describes the conditions around the card today - how sellers are pricing it, how it is trending, how steadily it trades. Its weights were tuned on how cards moved over the following 60 days, so a high score is a tendency across many cards, not a forecast for this one - and it says nothing about whether you will enjoy owning the card.
Why is it interesting?
Sellers undercutting and sliding for 2 months
Median asking prices sit below the recent-sales market reference - sellers are pricing more aggressively. It has fallen behind the market over the past two months.
Is it becoming more popular?
No - losing ground
Compared with the Pokemon market as a whole, so a rising tide does not count as popularity. In this market these trends have tended to keep going rather than reverse.
Past month-5.7%
Past 2 months-21.8%
Past 4 months-33.8%
Is it expensive or cheap?
$6.64 - expensive for its set
At $6.64 it is expensive for its set - number 74 of 410 by price. It costs more than 73% of other Rare cards we track. It is 26% below its 12-month high. Worth knowing: in this market cards near their highs have gone on to do better than deeply discounted ones, so a big discount is not automatically a bargain.
What makes this card unusual?
An ordinary Rare from a 8-year-old set
Rare is a widely printed rarity - 6,033 tracked cards share it. The set is about 8 years old, so surviving copies in good condition get scarcer over time.
Could you actually buy or sell it?
Yes, with patience
The price changed in 41% of our checks over the past year across 365 observations. TCGplayer's market price only updates when a copy sells, so a low figure means the price shown may be stale and any trend reading is built on very few real sales.
How does the grading fee compare?
Fee exceeds raw price
A roughly $22.00 grading fee is 331% of the $6.64 raw price. Raw price plus fee comes to about $28.64, before shipping, insurance or selling costs. That is a cost comparison, not an estimate of a graded copy's value. We track raw ungraded prices only - no graded sales and no population data. We cannot assess this copy's condition or tell you what a PSA 10 is worth. Check condition and comparable graded sales before deciding whether grading would pay off.
TCGplayer market price on the last day we have for each month; the current month so far.
