Price history, listings and card analysis
Pikachu ex 238/191 Surging Sparks (Holofoil). TCGplayer market price: $284.71 as of Oct 1, 2026. Recorded price history: 703 daily market-price observations, Oct 29, 2024 to Oct 1, 2026. 12-month recorded market-price range: $250.34 – $384.50. Performance versus the market: Over the last 2 months this card fell 12.0%, while the typical card we track rose 4.6%: it has fallen behind the market by 16.0%. TCGplayer lowest listed ask: $249.01 as of Oct 1, 2026, across conditions, before shipping. TCGplayer listed median: $304.69 as of Oct 1, 2026. Pokespective interest score: 38 out of 100 (Ordinary); It ranks above 38% of the cards we track. 60-day price forecast: An estimated 29% chance of beating the typical tracked card over 60 days; in a typical outcome it would end about 4.4% behind. Four times in five the price lands between $255.77 and $329.00. 60-day forecast: Likely range: $255.77 – $329.00; 8 in 10 outcomes. 60-day forecast: Middle half: $269.08 – $301.01; half of outcomes land here. 60-day forecast: Typical outcome: $283; -4.4% versus the market. 60-day forecast: Confidence: 93 / 100; a narrow range, not a better outcome.
Beating the market, or just riding it?
Falling behind the market
Over the last 2 months this card fell 12.0%, while the typical card we track rose 4.6%: it has fallen behind the market by 16.0%.
Describes the last 2 months, not what happens next. Not investment advice.
Is this card interesting right now?
Ordinary - 38 out of 100
It ranks above 38% of the cards we track. The score describes the conditions around the card today - how sellers are pricing it, how it is trending, how steadily it trades. Its weights were tuned on how cards moved over the following 60 days, so a high score is a tendency across many cards, not a forecast for this one - and it says nothing about whether you will enjoy owning the card.
Why is it interesting?
Very steady price and sliding for 2 months
The price moves in small, calm steps rather than lurching around. It has fallen behind the market over the past two months.
Is it becoming more popular?
No - losing ground
Compared with the Pokemon market as a whole, so a rising tide does not count as popularity. In this market these trends have tended to keep going rather than reverse.
Past month-2.8%
Past 2 months-16.0%
Past 4 months-26.8%
Is it expensive or cheap?
$284.71 - expensive for its set
At $284.71 it is one of the priciest cards in its set - number 1 of 418 by price. It costs more than 94% of other Special Illustration Rare cards we track. It is 26% below its 12-month high. Worth knowing: in this market cards near their highs have gone on to do better than deeply discounted ones, so a big discount is not automatically a bargain.
What makes this card unusual?
Special Illustration Rare - genuinely scarce, the most valuable card in its set
Only 232 of the cards we track are Special Illustration Rare - under 0.5% of them. It is the single most expensive card of the 418 we track in this set. This is the Holofoil printing, which is priced as a completely separate market from the other printings of the same artwork.
Could you actually buy or sell it?
Easily - it trades often
The price changed in 75% of our checks over the past year across 365 observations. TCGplayer's market price only updates when a copy sells, so a low figure means the price shown may be stale and any trend reading is built on very few real sales.
How does the grading fee compare?
Small fee versus raw price
A roughly $22.00 grading fee is 8% of the $284.71 raw price. Raw price plus fee comes to about $306.71, before shipping, insurance or selling costs. That is a cost comparison, not an estimate of a graded copy's value. We track raw ungraded prices only - no graded sales and no population data. We cannot assess this copy's condition or tell you what a PSA 10 is worth. Check condition and comparable graded sales before deciding whether grading would pay off.
TCGplayer market price on the last day we have for each month; the current month so far.
