Price history, listings and card analysis
Mega Excadrill ex 103/084 Pitch Black (Holofoil). TCGplayer market price: $4.97 as of Oct 1, 2026. Recorded price history: 84 daily market-price observations, Jul 8, 2026 to Oct 1, 2026. 12-month recorded market-price range: $4.81 – $15.89. Performance versus the market: Over the last 2 months this card fell 49.4%, while the typical card we track rose 4.6%: it has fallen behind the market by 51.7%. TCGplayer lowest listed ask: $3.20 as of Oct 1, 2026, across conditions, before shipping. TCGplayer listed median: $6.37 as of Oct 1, 2026. Pokespective interest score: 0 out of 100 (Quiet); It ranks above 1% of the cards we track. 60-day price forecast: An estimated 22% chance of beating the typical tracked card over 60 days; in a typical outcome it would end about 14.0% behind. Four times in five the price lands between $3.31 and $6.12. 60-day forecast: Likely range: $3.31 – $6.12; 8 in 10 outcomes. 60-day forecast: Middle half: $3.91 – $5.11; half of outcomes land here. 60-day forecast: Typical outcome: $4.44; -14.0% versus the market. 60-day forecast: Confidence: 35 / 100; thin data, read it loosely.
Beating the market, or just riding it?
Falling behind the market
Over the last 2 months this card fell 49.4%, while the typical card we track rose 4.6%: it has fallen behind the market by 51.7%.
Describes the last 2 months, not what happens next. Not investment advice.
Is this card interesting right now?
Quiet - 0 out of 100
It ranks above 1% of the cards we track. The score describes the conditions around the card today - how sellers are pricing it, how it is trending, how steadily it trades. Its weights were tuned on how cards moved over the following 60 days, so a high score is a tendency across many cards, not a forecast for this one - and it says nothing about whether you will enjoy owning the card.
Why is it interesting?
Slipping this month and sliding for 2 months
It has fallen behind the rest of the market over the past month. It has fallen behind the market over the past two months.
Is it becoming more popular?
No - losing ground
Compared with the Pokemon market as a whole, so a rising tide does not count as popularity. In this market these trends have tended to keep going rather than reverse.
Past month-34.9%
Past 2 months-51.7%
Is it expensive or cheap?
$4.97 - expensive for its set
At $4.97 it is one of the priciest cards in its set - number 14 of 194 by price. It costs more than 41% of other Ultra Rare cards we track. It is 69% below its 12-month high. Worth knowing: in this market cards near their highs have gone on to do better than deeply discounted ones, so a big discount is not automatically a bargain.
What makes this card unusual?
An ordinary Ultra Rare from a recent set
Ultra Rare is a widely printed rarity - 2,593 tracked cards share it. This is the Holofoil printing, which is priced as a completely separate market from the other printings of the same artwork. The set is brand new - prices this early are driven by hype and packs still being opened, and usually settle downward.
Could you actually buy or sell it?
Easily - it trades often
The price changed in 96% of our checks over the past year across 83 observations. TCGplayer's market price only updates when a copy sells, so a low figure means the price shown may be stale and any trend reading is built on very few real sales.
How does the grading fee compare?
Fee exceeds raw price
A roughly $22.00 grading fee is 443% of the $4.97 raw price. Raw price plus fee comes to about $26.97, before shipping, insurance or selling costs. That is a cost comparison, not an estimate of a graded copy's value. We track raw ungraded prices only - no graded sales and no population data. We cannot assess this copy's condition or tell you what a PSA 10 is worth. Check condition and comparable graded sales before deciding whether grading would pay off.
TCGplayer market price on the last day we have for each month; the current month so far.
